China targets 2.4 mil mt/year SAF capacity by 2030, IATA sees potential

China is seeking to expand sustainable aviation fuel capacity and build the infrastructure needed for wider use under a new aviation development plan, as IATA highlighted the country's potential to become a global leader in next-generation aviation fuels at the Aviation Energy Forum on Nov. 10.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China's green development implementation plan for 2026-30, released Nov. 2, targets 2.4 million metric tons/year of SAF capacity meeting airworthiness requirements by 2030, with emphasis on diversifying feedstocks and expanding airport supply infrastructure.

CAAC said in an accompanying explainer that six companies had completed SAF production airworthiness certification, the safety and technical approval, representing 1.2 million-1.4 million metric tons/year of capacity. The 2030 target implies an increase of about 71%-100% from that stated base.

By 2030, the plan aims to cut CO2 emissions per ton-kilometer in air transport by 4% and per passenger handled at airports by 15%, compared with the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025).

"China can become a global leader in the next generation of aviation fuels," Uyi Idahosa, IATA's director of sustainable fuels and energy transition, told the association's Aviation Energy Forum in Guangzhou.

He noted China's experience in renewable energy, industrial development, and technology deployment as evidence of its ability to scale new fuel industries.

More pathways for energy security

China Southern Air Holding executive vice president Chen Zhe also highlighted in his keynote at the forum the country's used cooking oil and agricultural residue resources, renewable-energy capacity, manufacturing base and large domestic market as foundations for SAF development.

The plan by CAAC targets more than 20,000 metric tons/year of capacity using feedstocks other than waste oils by 2030.

It calls for upgrades to waste-oil processing to increase yields and lower costs, while accelerating the commercialization of cellulosic biomass pathways.

CAAC also called for the development of power-to-liquid production using carbon dioxide and clean, low-carbon hydrogen, and alcohol-to-jet technologies based on non-food biomass.

Idahosa said broader production across regions could strengthen aviation's energy security by diversifying fuel sources and supply chains.

"More SAF produced in more places means greater energy security," he said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed SAF FOB China at $2,035/mt on Nov. 6, up $3/mt from the day prior.

Building delivery infrastructure

Besides production targets, CAAC's plan highlighted the development of SAF storage, blending and refuelling facilities.

It calls for upgrades to refuelling systems, a digital operations management platform, and support for Chinese-made civil aircraft to conduct high-blend SAF validation.

The regulator plans to formulate a SAF action plan, gradually expand application pilots and develop blending targets, as part of priority projects aimed at optimizing civil aviation's energy mix. CAAC also plans to establish sustainability-certification standards and strengthen international mutual recognition.

Chen called for cooperation on fuel standards, sustainability certification and accounting, citing high production costs and incomplete supply chains as challenges to wider adoption.

Platts assessed SAF (HEFA-SPK) North Asia cost of production at $2,223.4/mt on Nov. 6, down $44.64/mt from the day before.

The distinction between capacity and fuel delivered to airlines remains central to implementation, Idahosa said. "Capacity on paper does not decarbonize air transport. Molecules delivered to airports do."