North American fuel exports surge as Hormuz closure reshapes global trade: CERA

North American refined product markets are expected to remain exceptionally tight through at least 2026, with exports surging and prices remaining elevated as the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz forces a major reordering of global fuel trade flows, S&P Global Energy CERA analysts said April 29.

CERA's May North America Short-Term Outlook - Refined Products says that US refiners have become the primary shock absorber for global supply disruptions, as curtailed Middle Eastern exports push Europe, Latin America and parts of Asia to draw more heavily on US barrels.

"The loss of Hormuz volumes has fundamentally altered Atlantic Basin trade economics," CERA analysts said in the report. "US refiners are exporting at or near record levels across diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, and that export pull is now the dominant driver of inventories and pricing."

US diesel exports are forecast to remain well above historical norms through mid 2026, as European buyers scramble to replace barrels previously sourced from the Persian Gulf. The report shows US Gulf Coast inventories drawing steadily, with stock levels falling well below seasonal averages as exports continue to outpace domestic supply growth.

That tightening has supported strong refining margins, which CERA expects to persist through 2026 absent a material easing of geopolitical risk. "This is not a short lived spike," analysts said. "Export driven tightness is structural as long as Hormuz remains closed or impaired."

Platts assessed prompt pipeline USGC ULSD 20.94 cents higher on April 29 at $4.0941/gal. Platts also assessed the outright price for CBOB 87 gasoline up by 15.35 cents to $3.4532/gal, while the outright price for unleaded 87 climbed 17.75 cents/gal to $3.5972/gal.

Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.

Gasoline markets are facing similar pressure, particularly on the US East Coast, where inventories have been declining rapidly and imports have fallen sharply. The outlook projects that US retail gasoline prices will remain significantly elevated relative to pre-conflict levels.

"The US Atlantic Coast is increasingly exposed to global disruptions," the report said. "With fewer barrels available from traditional suppliers, the region is competing more directly with export markets for supply."

Platts assessed 7.4 RVP RBOB New York Harbor barges higher at $3.7586/gallon, up by 18.07 cents, the highest close since June 29, 2022.

Jet fuel has emerged as one of the tightest products globally, with US exports reaching record highs in 2026 and inventories sitting below historical averages. Jet fuel has consistently traded at a premium to other refined products as airlines compete with exporters for limited supply.

"The jet market is where the global disruption is most visible," CERA analysts said. "Air travel demand has held up, while supply options outside North America have narrowed sharply. That imbalance has driven sustained tightness in the jet complex."

Prompt pipe USGC jet fuel was assessed 15.34 cents higher at $4.0961/gal on April 29.

Despite high prices, US refinery utilization is expected to remain strong through the second and third quarters, as operators seek to maximize output amid strong refinery margins.

Looking ahead, CERA sees refining margins staying elevated into 2027, with only a gradual easing as fuel supplies out of the Strait of Hormuz begin to normalize. Risks remain firmly skewed to the upside, however, particularly if geopolitical disruptions persist.

"As long as Middle East supply remains disrupted, North America will sit at the center of global market balancing," analysts said. "That means strong exports, lean inventories and continued price support across refined products."