USGC jet rises to 44-month high, rare New York premium on export demand

US jet fuel prices rose again on March 5, including the Gulf Coast benchmark to a 44-month high and the first premium to New York Harbor barrels since Feb. 24, 2023, as prompt export demand to Europe builds.

The Middle East war pushed spot prices for benchmark US Gulf Coast pipeline jet up 18.3% March 5 to $4.1243/gal, highs unseen since June 2022 records after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The US benchmark is up by $1.7383/gal since Feb. 27 — before the US-Iran conflict.

USGC waterborne jet export prices rose in tandem on March 5 by 1.50 cents/gal to premiums against the prompt USGC Colonial Pipeline price of 6.00 cents/gal for domestic Jet A grade and international specification Jet A1 cargoes. That is the highest Jet A premium since Sept. 27, 2024, and the highest A-1 assessment since Oct. 22, 2024.

In 2025, Persian Gulf exporters supplied around one-fifth of the diesel that arrived in the EU and UK, and around half the jet fuel, S&P Global Commodities at Sea data showed.

A US jet trader said on March 5 that Dangote refinery could become "the saving grace". "They need to come back online and start producing big time," he added.

Nigeria's 650,000-b/d Dangote complex, Africa's largest refinery, returned from maintenance last month.

In jet and diesel markets, Dangote exported a peak of almost 160,000 b/d in July, mostly to West Africa, North Africa and Europe. However, levels dropped to just 34,000 b/d in February, and are yet to rebound in March, CAS data showed.

USGC jet was also assessed 1.00 cent/gal above the US Atlantic Coast jet benchmark--Buckeye Pipeline--, which is the first premium since Feb. 24, 2023, when it stood at minus 20.09 cents/gal during a post-pandemic rebound in air travel demand that outpaced a recovery in refined products production.

New York Harbor supply, which is largely sourced domestically from Texas and Louisiana refineries and historically carries a premium to USGC barrels due to shipping costs, could come under pressure as increased international demand increases.

Backwardation in USGC pipeline jet was heard as steep as between 5.00 cents/gal and 15.00 cents/gal, based on prompt Cycle 16 premiums to forward Cycle 17 barrels, indicating prompt demand is outstripping supply.

However, trading activity for the USGC was muted again on March 5 as offers rose throughout the day. The last trade in the MOC for USGC jet was on March 3 for the previous cycle at a 6.00 cents/gal discount to prompt NYMEX ULSD.

Export arbitrage opportunities could still be made difficult to work amid rising freight costs and higher risk premiums for shipments, which is limiting sell-side activity, according to market sources on March 4.

The US Gulf Coast to Northwest Europe arbitrage was estimated workable by 25.14/b on March 5, according to the latest Platts Refined Products arbFlow Report.