RARE EARTHS: NdPr oxide sales heard below support levels of $110/kg CIF North America

Prices of neodymium praseodymium oxide appear to be under downward pressure, as producers were heard selling at below typical government support prices of $110/kilogram CIF North America, market participants said.

Indicative values quoted by mining companies and traders ranged from $110-$120/kg although one company that is developing an NdPr resource put the range at $110-$115/kg.

"It's pretty clear that some producers are selling below the $110 support level," a trader said. "NdPr doesn't have the same supply issues as the heavies. It is produced outside of China, and the market is definitely balanced and could be in surplus."

According to market participants, junior mining companies and developers view the $110/kg support price, set by several governments, as sufficient to bring planned products into production.

Under the support price schemes, if a producer sells below the $110/kg support price, its government will pay the difference between the support price and the actual sale price.

The Platts monthly CIF North America assessment for NdPr oxide, TREO 99.5%, fell to $115/kg in July from $120/kg in June.

But a second trader gave price indications of NdPr oxide in August at between $115 and $120/kg CIF North America, but said he had not been very active in the market.

Unlike in the heavy rare earths space, CIF North America NdPr oxides are showing little to no premium over FOB China prices, said to be another indication the market was well supplied. The Platts FOB China assessment for NdPr oxide was $112/kg FOB China in July, up $2 from June.

In the heavy rare earths space, wide ranges were heard from participants, but no business was heard concluded.

Indicative values in terbium oxide were heard at $4800-$5,000/kg CIF North America. But one trader said the prices being reported were not being based on business."Nothing is being done because people don't have it," said a trader. "I can't find any to buy, so any price is almost a nonsense."

A second trader said with terbium, it was only possible to find small lots of between 50 kilograms and 150 kg, which was part of the reason behind the high prices.

Dysprosium very tight

The Platts monthly CIF North America assessment for dysprosium oxide, TREO 99.9% rose $100 in July to $4,900/kg from $4,800/kg in June.

The full range of price indications heard in dysprosium oxide in the first half of July was $2,500/kg up to $5,000/kg. The Platts monthly CIF North America assessment rose $200 to $2,300/kg in July.

Market participants said dysprosium was also very tight, with China having halted exports of all rare earths in July.

A third trader said he did not want to struggle for supply.

"If it's offered, I'm buying, not because I think it's going to $6,000, but because it's getting critical on a supply basis," the trader said.

He said some consumers were being "very proactive and buying whenever they can get offers." But some consumers were being the opposite. The trader had spoken to one such consumer in the middle of the month, "and they said, 'When you've got something, let us know.' I wanted to say to them, 'What planet are you operating on'?"

Indicative values for samarium were heard in a range of $800-$1,000/kg, with little activity. The Platts CIF North America assessment for samarium oxide, TREO 99.5% rose $200 to $800/kg in July.

Several market participants have said most of the rare earths oxides being traded were still legacy Chinese material exported several months ago, but those supplies were running thin.

"With China having shut off the supply of heavies, it's a bit like the COVID toilet paper situation on grocery store shelves on steroids," the first trader said.

The second trader said the market was running out of the legacy Chinese material. "What we thought was going to happen in November already happened in July," the trader said, in reference to China adding more importers in Japan to its designated list, restricting exports of heavy rare earths.

The first trader also said companies outside China "can't ship [China origin] yttrium or any dual-use material to Japan," or they risked losing export licenses from China.

The Platts CIF North America August rare earths oxides assessments will be published on Aug. 31.

Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.