Brazilian steel market forecasts prices to increase in May: survey

Brazilian steel market participants expect steel prices to rise 8.36 points to 65.62 points in May, according to the Platts Monthly Market Sentiment Survey from S&P Global Energy.

The forecast is the highest for finished steel prices since August 2024, according to Platts data.

Similarly, the index for steel inventory levels in May rose to 54.16 points from 49.57 points in April. Some 37% of respondents expected steel inventories in April to be above 50 days, with another 31% expecting around 30 days, 19% expecting below 20 days and 13% expecting around 40 days.

Estimates for finished steel production remained practically stable at 53.12 points, compared to 53.42 points in the previous month, the survey showed.

The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a cutoff line at 50 points. Data above 50 indicates an expectation of an increase, and below 50 indicates an expectation of a decrease compared to the previous month. A reading of 50 signifies an expectation of stability.

Survey responses for expected price changes for steelmaking raw materials totaled 59.37 points, slightly above the 58.97 points in April.

One market participant said the ferrous scrap market has been quite stable in recent days, but said some recyclers were trying to push for an increase, "mainly due to the devaluation of the dollar."

Meanwhile, a buyer said demand for steel was still falling, awaiting developments in the Iran-US conflict, elections in Brazil, and Brazilian interest rates.

"This scenario means that consumer purchases are linked to immediate needs, with controlled replenishment of inventories," the buyer said.

Of the participants in the May Platts survey, 44% operate in the flat steel sector, 31% operate in the multi-product sector, 13% in the long steel sector and 12% in raw materials.

Platts assessed the daily prices of Brazilian domestic rebar unchanged at Real 3,520/metric ton ex-works on May 11, within a range of Real 3,440-3,600/mt, excluding taxes and freight, based on bids, offers and deals.

Platts assessed the daily price of Brazilian HRC at Real 4,025/mt ex-works, excluding taxes, unchanged, within a range of Real 3,950-4,100/mt on May 11.