China's semi-finished steel exports surge as trade barriers hit finished products

China's surging semi-finished steel exports, led by slab shipments, are partially offsetting weaker finished steel exports in 2026 so far, as antidumping measures have mainly targeted finished steel shipments.

China's semi-finished steel exports, which face almost no antidumping measures globally, remain on a year-over-year upward trajectory, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data as of May 8.

In particular, since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February, China's slab exports have risen rapidly due to the halt in Iran's steel exports.

Strong semi-finished steel exports are expected to continue in April and May, keeping the Chinese steel market steady amid dropping finished steel exports, China-based market participants told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

In April, the finished and semi-finished steel export loading volumes at Chinese ports totaled 12.843 million metric tons, up 2.3% month over month and 20% year over year, according to CAS data.

Some China-based traders said exports of semi-finished steel rose further in April, which in turn supported Chinese steel prices despite relatively weak domestic demand during the month.

According to a domestic market trading source and an industrial analyst, domestic hot-rolled coil and rebar consumption as of early May remained below year-ago levels, mainly due to weakness in the property sector.

According to some China-based traders, the uptrend in China's steel export volumes is expected to continue into May, driven by strong overseas orders received from March through mid-April amid sluggish domestic demand and the absence of Iranian steel from the global market.

Among these, the growth rate of slab exports is expected to accelerate.

Over January-March, China's slab exports totaled 604,567 mt, up 182.1% year over year, according to China Customs data. During the same period, billet exports increased by 14.8% year over year to 2.66 million mt.

"The surge in slab exports comes as Iran's absence from global steel markets has created a supply gap that Chinese steel has moved to fill. It remains difficult for Iran's steel exports to resume in the short term, so as far as slab exports are concerned, they will likely maintain high year-over-year growth throughout 2026," a trading source said.

"However, since mid-April, driven by rising raw material prices and domestic steel futures, Chinese steel prices have increased, leading to a decline in export orders for Chinese finished and semi-finished steel. Therefore, it is possible that China's steel exports will fall back in June after experiencing an increase in April and May," a second trading source said.

A mill source also said that export orders received in April for semi-finished steel, billet and slab combined at mainstream steel mills remained at historically high levels but declined slightly compared with March.

A third trading source and another mill source said buyers from the Middle East have recently resumed purchasing, although the total volume remains low due to ongoing disruptions to the shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Overseas orders have declined recently following the rise in Chinese steel prices, but if the Strait of Hormuz can reopen in the near future, I believe steel demand from the Middle East could allow China's steel exports to maintain growth in June as well," the third trader said. The situation in the Middle East remains highly uncertain, making it difficult to accurately predict local steel demand, the trader added.

Platts assessed Chinese export 3SP 150mm billet at $477/mt FOB China on May 7, up $16/mt from April 15. The Platts-assessed SS400 HRC increased to $503/mt FOB China on May 7, up $23/mt from April 15.

Antidumping weighing on exports

Market participants expect semi-finished steel exports to remain strong this year, thereby helping China's overall steel exports.

However, they also mentioned that an increasing number of antidumping measures against Chinese steel would put more pressure on China's steel exports in 2026 than in 2025.

So far in 2026, Chinese steel products have already been subject to 17 antidumping and safeguard duties, compared with 12 antidumping cases for the entire 2025. Meanwhile, 17 more trade cases against Chinese steel are currently under investigation.

The biggest impact this year stems from Brazil, Vietnam and South Korea's antidumping measures on certain products, as well as Turkey's upcoming antidumping measures, according to multiple trading sources.

In January-March, China's total steel exports to Brazil, South Korea and Vietnam fell 30% year over year, while the exports of cold-rolled coil, HDG and color-coated steel to Turkey fell 42% year over year, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence's Global Trade Analytics Suite.

China's slab and billet exports are likely to remain strong, but whether these shipments can fully offset the decline in exports due to global antidumping measures throughout 2026 remains unknown, according to market sources.