Critical minerals shortage threatens US military production capacity

The Pentagon's ability to replenish weapons stockpiles could come under pressure from the shortages in some critical mineral markets and China's leverage over mineral supply chains, industry experts told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

Shortfalls in tungsten, antimony, gallium, and germanium – crucial components in military hardware ranging from ammunition to advanced weaponry systems – are emerging as a strategic vulnerability for the US military in the event of a prolonged engagement in the Iran conflict.

"Stockpiles are dwindling," Peter Clausi, director of the Critical Minerals Institute, a Toronto-based think tank, told Platts on the sidelines of the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada conference in Toronto on March 3. "If the US is running out of tungsten and antimony and it doesn't have access to germanium and gallium supplies, it cannot build new weapons."

On March 4 the US Department of Defense announced a Feb. 24 investment of $27 million for the domestic extraction, processing, and refinement of antimony.

"For too long, DOW has depended on overseas sources for its critical mineral production," said Assistant Secretary of War for Industrial Base Policy Mike Cadenazzi. "This investment will address risk in one of our most critical munitions and materials supply chains."

Also on Feb. 27, the day before launching attacks on Iran, the US government put out a request to miners asking how fast they could develop mines to produce tungsten and 12 additional elements, Reuters reported on March 4.

The Department of Defense did not immediately respond to a Platts request for comment.

The conflict has highlighted vulnerabilities in the US defense supply chain, particularly its dependence on critical minerals used in weapons production.

The US meets roughly 85% of its antimony consumption through imports, according to the US Geological Survey, and is nearly 100% dependent on imports for its gallium needs.

China is a dominant global producer of both antimony and gallium, among other critical minerals used in military applications, including graphite, germanium, and rare earth elements.

China impact

While the US supply vulnerabilities in critical minerals are well documented, determining the exact depletion rate is challenging due to the classified nature of military stockpiles.

But ultimately, it will depend on the length of the conflict, and the leverage China chooses to exert over global mineral supply chains.

"Any shortages would obviously be a function of how long any conflict lasts," Chris Berry, founder and president of the House Mountain Partners advisory firm, told Platts, adding that "as usual, this story, in my opinion, revolves around China's export control restrictions. In theory, there could be plenty of these metals available, but China may choose to restrict their export given that their use will strengthen an adversary (the US) and contribute to the demise of an ally (Iran)."

On March 2, Beijing issued an official statement in support of the Iranian government and called for an immediate stop to military operations in the region.

Monitoring price movements for these critical minerals remains difficult due to limited transparent pricing mechanisms and China's dominant role in setting export prices for many of these materials, according to Clausi. The lack of price transparency complicates efforts to assess market conditions and secure alternative supply sources.

Executives from major US defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin and RTX, the parent company of Raytheon, are expected to meet with White House officials on March 6 to discuss accelerating weapons production, Reuters reported.

US President Donald Trump said on March 3 that the country had plenty of ammunition.