Shell continues to have conviction in long-term role of LNG: CEO

Shell continues to have conviction in the long-term role of LNG given its importance in energy security and its contribution to a diverse energy supply, CEO Wael Sawan said May 7.

Speaking following the company's first-quarter results, Sawan said Shell sees a global LNG market of 600-800 million metric tons/year by 2050 and "resilient demand that is continuing to be there for LNG."

Shell in March said demand totaled 422 million metric tons in 2025.

"If you look longer term, we absolutely continue to have conviction in the role of LNG," Sawan said. "The importance of having diverse supplies of energy to underpin security is key. And LNG plays an incredibly important role in that."

He said that over the past three to four years, it had become clear that "national security is anchored on energy security."

Sawan also said that the LNG market would go through cycles in the short to medium term and played down the impact of the current Qatari LNG outages on the global market.

"Undoubtedly in the short term, the tightness of the market is real," he said, a reference to the LNG supply outages triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.

But he said while those outages represented 20% of the LNG market, it was only 3% of the overall gas market. "It is much more contained across the entire commodity in that context," he said.

Price volatility

Shell CFO Sinead Gorman also pointed May 7 to volatility in global gas markets, but said it was less marked than following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"TTF/JKM volatility is still less than we saw during Ukraine and Russia, but we do see the volatility there," Gorman said.

The Dutch TTF month-ahead contract reached a record high in August 2022 in the aftermath of Russia's invasion.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the TTF month-ahead price at an all-time high of Eur319.98/MWh on Aug. 26, 2022.

Before the US and Israel began their attacks against Iran on Feb. 28, Platts assessed the TTF front-month price at Eur31.40/MWh. It hit a recent peak of Eur61.94/MWh on March 19, and was assessed on May 6 at Eur43.78/MWh.

The Platts JKM -- the benchmark price reflecting LNG delivered to Northeast Asia -- reached a record high of $84.76/MMBtu on March 7, 2022.

It hit a recent peak of $25.41/MMBtu on March 19, up from $10.70/MMBtu on Feb. 27. Platts assessed the JKM on May 7 at $16.95/MMBtu.

Gorman said earlier May 7 that Shell's LNG trading and optimization results were "broadly" in line with the previous quarter, reflecting price lags in its term contracts.

She also said that the continued ramp-up of LNG Canada in the first quarter helped to offset the impact of cyclones in Australia and the shutdown of production in Qatar.

Gorman also said the Qatari LNG train in which Shell holds an interest is "start-up ready" -- subject to the ability to move products through the Strait of Hormuz.

All Qatari LNG production was suspended at the start of March amid the Middle East conflict.

Shell has a 30% stake in QatarEnergies LNG N4 JV (Train 7), which has a production capacity of 7.8 million mt/year. It was not one of the two Qatari LNG trains damaged by Iranian attacks in March.