Hydrogen prices seen nearing diesel parity by 2030: ZESTAs

Hydrogen prices are expected to start reaching parity with diesel by 2030, Madadh MacLaine, founder and secretary general of the Zero Emissions Ship Technology Association, told Platts in an emailed interview.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, last assessed the India renewable hydrogen term contract at $3.19/kg, or $28.0714/MMBtu, on April 23.

The shipping sector is undergoing a complex energy transition, with multiple alternative fuels. Against this backdrop, MacLaine has positioned hydrogen as the only fuel capable of delivering truly zero-emissions shipping at scale.

While fuels such as methanol, ammonia and biofuels are gaining traction as near-term solutions, she described them as transitional pathways rather than end-state fuels.

Many of these alternatives either rely on fossil-based feedstocks, generate life cycle emissions or depend on carbon capture to qualify as low-carbon. "They extend the life of the existing combustion system," MacLaine suggested, rather than replacing it.

Hydrogen, by contrast, offers a fundamentally different proposition, she said. It is a clean energy carrier that can fully eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from ship propulsion when used in fuel cells.

Importantly for shipowners and operators, MacLaine emphasized that hydrogen-powered ships are no longer conceptual. Several designs are already in advanced development, and early-stage ships are undergoing testing.

She expects that within the next five years, hydrogen ships will meet international maritime safety and regulatory standards, enabling broader commercial deployment.

The main challenge lies not in propulsion technology but in fuel logistics, MacLaine said.

Hydrogen is more difficult to store and transport than conventional marine fuels due to its low volumetric energy density and the need for compression or liquefaction, she added. This has implications for ship design, onboard storage and bunkering infrastructure.

However, MacLaine argued that these challenges should be viewed in context. "We are comparing hydrogen to a fossil fuel system that has been optimized for over a century," she said.

With sufficient investment in port infrastructure, storage systems and supply chains, hydrogen could become a viable marine fuel at scale, MacLaine said.

Geopolitics may further accelerate this transition, she added. Ongoing tensions in key energy-producing regions, particularly the Middle East, are heightening concerns around fuel security and price volatility.

Hydrogen -- especially when produced domestically from renewable sources -- offers a pathway to greater energy independence.

"There is no sovereignty without energy security," MacLaine said, a statement she said resonates not only at the national level but also for fleet operators seeking to reduce exposure to fuel market disruptions.

Still, the road ahead is not without setbacks, she added. The International Maritime Organization's inability to adopt the Net-Zero Framework in 2025 highlights the challenges facing large-scale alternative-fuel projects.

Ultimately, the timeline to 2030 will be critical, MacLaine said. If hydrogen can achieve cost parity with diesel and infrastructure deployment keeps pace, it could move from a niche solution to a mainstream marine fuel.