INTERVIEW: Hydrogen to aid shipping decarbonization pathways: MMMCZCS' Norgaard

Hydrogen is expected to remain on the sidelines as a marine fuel for many years to come, with its main role in shipping's decarbonization likely to be supporting other fuel pathways, Torben Norgaard, Chief Technology and Analytics Officer at the Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping, told S&P Global Energy in an emailed interview on March 10.

Norgaard said that hydrogen still faces structural challenges that make widespread adoption in deep-sea shipping difficult compared to alternatives such as methanol or biofuels.

"Hydrogen remains challenged by its thermodynamic characteristics when considered for deep-sea shipping," he said.

"In broad terms, we see hydrogen as a standalone fuel being less competitive than other low-emission fuels."

Additionally, shipping currently has limited experience handling compressed or liquefied hydrogen, both as cargo and as fuel. This requires substantial effort to develop crew skills and operational familiarity.

Instead, he anticipates that hydrogen will play a bigger role upstream in fuel production, especially in increasing biofuel output and enhancing the sustainability of certain alternative fuel pathways.

Nascent market

The hydrogen market is still in its early stage of development.

According to Norgaard, there is currently no liquid market with transparent pricing for hydrogen supplied at ports. Transactions are dominated by bilateral over-the-counter contracts customized for specific infrastructure and regulatory environments.

"The hydrogen economy is still under maturation," he said.

Platts assessed the Indian unrenewable hydrogen term contract at $3.1882/kg on March 5.

Meanwhile, India is advancing toward its goal of becoming a major player in the global hydrogen market through new investments and policies.

Regulations clarity needed

For the shipping industry, long-term regulatory clarity and certainty are among the most important factors shaping fuel adoption, he said.

Shipping operates globally and benefits from internationally aligned rules that create certainty for shipowners, fuel producers, and investors. Therefore, the International Maritime Organization's Netzero Framework, along with regional regulations such as FuelEU Maritime, provides signals for investment in alternative fuels and transition technologies.

"Business requires predictability and clarity to invest," he said.

Electrification gaining ground

Besides other alternative fuels, hydrogen is also facing increasing competition from electrification, particularly in inland and short-sea shipping.

Direct electrification is much more energy-efficient than producing synthetic fuels with renewable power, Norgaard said.

To deliver 10,000 GWh of onboard power using green fuels, approximately 12 GW of wind power capacity would be needed, accounting for conversion and storage losses. In comparison, direct electrification would require only about 4 GW of installed renewable capacity to provide the same amount of energy, he said.

"This makes direct electrification a far more efficient solution," he said.

The economics are also shifting in favor of batteries as costs continue to fall while battery range steadily improves. Electrification technologies are also maturing faster due to large-scale adoption in other transport sectors.

As a result, battery-powered vessels could expand their operational scope faster than hydrogen-powered ships in the near term.

However, both electrification and hydrogen-powered vessels will depend heavily on the availability of suitable port infrastructure, Norgaard added.