European Q3 power demand dips on year despite September rebound

Power demand across Europe's five biggest markets in September rose by under 1% year-on-year, not enough to outweigh weaker demand in July and August, with overall demand for the third quarter down by about 1% on year, preliminary system data analyzed by Platts showed Oct. 10.

Combined demand in Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain and Spain was about 4 TWh below Q3 2024 with year-to-date demand now down 5 TWh and barely above 2023 lows.

Analysts at S&P Global Energy forecast Q4 power demand some 0.6% higher year-on-year across ten major European markets, while 2026 could see a stronger 1.6% increase, according to their latest European market report dated Oct. 2.

In Germany, Europe's biggest economy, September demand was higher year-on-year after a relative flat summer, system data showed.

However, demand for the first eight months of 2025 of 325 TWh is little changed compared to the same period in 2024, according to preliminary BDEW data that includes non-grid connected industrial demand that is not captured by the hourly system data.

Germany's sluggish demand recovery was key to the government-commissioned 'reality check' report that lowered 2030 demand estimates by about 20% relative to the 750 TWh in the green energy law that underpins expansion targets for renewables.

Gross power demand is unlikely to reach 500 TWh this year after only a minor rebound in 2024, the latest BDEW data show.

In France, September power consumption was about 1% higher on year, but the impact of the cold winter still keeps year-to-date demand up by about 1%.

However, Energy analysts recently reduced their French power demand growth projections for 2026 and 2027 to 0.9% and 1.7% respectively amid little signs of structural demand gains.

Spanish mainland power demand rose 4% on year to the highest September demand since 2021, data from grid operator REE showed.

For Q3, demand was up only 1% on year, with milder temperatures reducing demand in August.

Italian demand recovered from a 9% on year decline in August due to milder summer temperatures, with YTD demand still seen below 2024.

Meanwhile, UK power demand fell further in September with YTD power demand down by about 2%.

On a broader basis, electricity demand across the EU27 for September was flat on year, while Q3 demand dipped by about 0.6% or 3 TWh on year, according to preliminary Entso-e data aggregated by Fraunhofer-ISE.