FACTBOX: G7 holds off on oil stock release as prices hover around $100/b

The G7 is "not there yet" on a decision to release emergency oil reserves as part of its measures to mitigate price spikes, France's finance minister said March. 9, as world leaders assess the energy fallout of the conflict in the Middle East.

Platts assessed Dated Brent at $103/b on March. 9, the highest the crude benchmark has reached since August 2022. During European intraday trade, ICE Brent crude prices approached $120/b.

Analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA estimate that some 17 million b/d less crude and oil products departed the Persian Gulf last week, triggering shut-ins in countries including Kuwait and Iraq as producers approach peak storage capacity.

Trade flows

Asian refiners are drawing from floating oil inventories, which reached record levels in late 2025, and are pushing up prices for Russian crude as buyers adjust to Middle East supply disruptions.

• A drawdown of Iranian oil at sea led to a 50% decrease in crude and condensate held in floating storage off Southeast Asia between January and late February, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. A shift inland suggests a pull from Chinese refineries as inventories tighten.
• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at 10% of normal levels, according to Goldman Sachs, whose analysts warned March. 9 that an "unprecedented" supply shock could trigger faster-than expected demand destruction.
• India's energy imports are in "full flow from all non-Hormuz routes," its oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said March 8. More than 50% of India's recent crude imports have transited the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from CAS.
• Loadings at key ports in the Persian Gulf, where most supply remains stranded, totaled 3 million barrels on March 8, down from daily levels of close to 20 million barrels in the lead up to the conflict, CAS data shows.
• Exports from Saudi Arabia's west coast export terminal, Yanbu, have risen to 2.2 million b/d to date in March, up from previous monthly averages of around 600,000-800,000 b/d, according to CAS data.
• An Iran-linked VLCC crossed the Strait of Hormuz on March 7 laden with 2 million barrels of heavy sour crude destined for China. The activity signals that Chinese refiners could continue to receive Iranian barrels even with the critical waterway effectively shut.
• Seventy-five oil, chemical, and LPG tankers were anchored in the Gulf of Oman, possibly waiting to transit into the Persian Gulf via the Strait, according to S&P Global Energy CERA analysts.
• G7 finance ministers did not decide on a collective release of strategic oil stocks in an emergency meeting on March 9, despite IEA warnings that the situation had worsened over the weekend.

Prices

Oil and shipping markets continue to rally as traders reassess supply risks.

• The ICE May Brent crude futures contract peaked at $118.9/b in European intraday trade at 14:33 GMT, up by 28% from the previous close. By 18:30 GMT, prices had eased to $99.1/b.
• M1 ICE Gasoil futures peaked at $1,381/mt in intraday trade before easing to $1,116/mt at 18:30 GMT. Levels were last higher in October 2022 in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
• The discount for Russian oil delivered into India has narrowed after partial sanctions relief from the US for supplies already at sea. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Urals DAP West Coast India versus Forward Dated Brent at a discount of $9.4/b on March 9, compared with a discount of $12.5/b on Feb. 27.
• Dated Brent was assessed at $103/b on March 9, 9% higher from March 6 and up from $70.94/b prior to the war.
• The Brent-Dubai spread widened to $12.59/b on March 9 at 1630 GMT, up from $1.94/b on Feb. 26 to its widest since mid-2022.
• Platts assessed 0.5% sulfur fuel oil -- the shipping sector's most widely used fuel type -- in Singapore at $1200/mt, up 45% from March 6 and 130% from Feb. 27.
• The VLCC index for non-scrubber-fitted non-eco ships ended at $436,551/day on March 9, down from recent highs of over $500,000/day but more than double pre-war levels.

Infrastructure

Direct attacks on energy facilities continue as the US-Israel bombing campaign against Iran continues.

• The UAE's Fujairah Oil Tanker Terminal, a key hub for storage and bunkering, suspended operations on March 9 after the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone sustained its third attack in a week.
• In Bahrain, Bapco Energies declared force majeure on all operations, including its 405,000 b/d refinery, one of the largest in the Persian Gulf.
• Iraq's oil output from its southern fields has fallen to 1.3 million b/d, with remaining supply directed to local refineries and power stations, a Basrah Oil Co.'s executive told state media March 8.
• Several oil depots in Iran's Tehran and Alborz provinces were hit by missiles on March 7, National Iranian Oil Products Refining & Distribution Co. said.
• Kuwait reduced crude production and refining throughput on a "precautionary" basis following Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure and oil tankers in the Gulf, its state oil firm said March 7.
• Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar's energy minister, told the Financial Times that Gulf energy producers could shut production within days.
• An anchored VLCC owned by Mitsui O.S.K. Lines was hit by a falling object in the Gulf of Oman on March 4, the company reported March 6.
• HKN Energy halted operations at the Sarsang block in Iraqi Kurdistan after a field explosion, impacting 30,000 b/d of production.