Shell to resume oil exploration off Namibia in 2026 after write-down

Shell is planning to rekindle exploration efforts off Namibia in 2026, the company told Platts in a statement on Aug. 18, months after it surprised industry watchers by writing down $400 million on its key Orange Basin oil discoveries.

The British oil major's huge Graff discovery – alongside TotalEnergies' Venus find – transformed the fortunes of the Namibian offshore in 2022, sparking an influx of international oil companies, explorers and independents and leading to parallels with oil newcomer Guyana.

However, in January Shell said it would write down $400 million on its PEL 39 license, after drilling six exploration and three appraisal wells, and making a number of finds, including Graff and Jonker, some 270km off the coast of the Southern African country.

Now, though, the company could be set to revive its exploration activity in the high-profile basin.

"Shell, along with its partners, is progressing plans to conduct further exploration drilling activity in PEL 039 during 2026 to continue its evaluation of the prospectivity," a Shell spokesperson said in a statement.

"This activity reflects Shell's continued commitment to responsibly explore Namibia's offshore potential in close partnership with QatarEnergy and Namcor."

Shell previously noted challenges on its block due to resource mobility and permeability issues, as well as a high gas-to-oil ratio, which made extracting oil and gas harder, as well as market conditions that limited "commercial pathways".

The spokesperson did not offer any additional details on potential exploration efforts. Shell holds a 45% operating stake in PEL 39, while QatarEnergy holds 45% and state-run Namcor holds the remaining 10%.

First oil

New Shell wildcats would please Namibian officials, who have been battling to maintain their timeline to first oil by 2030 or sooner in recent months.

Namibia's government says the country could hold over 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent in potential resources, but has seen the Shell write-down and a major Chevron dry well dent optimism around its emerging oil sector. Officials hope oil and gas will be transformational for the country's small economy.

According to S&P Global Energy forecasts, Shell's PEL 39 development could come online in 2033, after TotalEnergies' Venus project and Rhino Resources' and Azule's PEL 85 project.

However, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne has spoken openly of the high gas-to-oil ratio and extreme water depths, which have made keeping development costs below $20/b a challenge. FID on the Venus development is expected in 2026.