European thermal coal imports may rise as Middle East war jolts gas supply outlook

Europe's utilities and traders are preparing to step up seaborne thermal coal purchases as the Middle East conflict adds volatility to gas markets and revives the economics of gas-to-coal switching ahead of summer demand, market participants said.

The pickup is expected first in spot restocking into Northwest Europe, with some market participants warning the impact could extend into the third or fourth quarters of 2026 if the conflict and LNG disruptions persist.

"We expect gas-to-coal switching in EU15 to outpace that of the Asian thermal markets as initial reactions. Given Asia's higher reliance upon thermal coal for power generation, we believe a shift could occur in terms of regional thermal coal demand and spot price escalation should the disruption extend," said Wendy Schallom, associate director of global seaborne thermal coal analysis at S&P Global Energy CERA.

The situation is unlikely to mirror 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine forced widespread coal switching amid an acute supply shock. Europe has since diversified its gas supply, expanded renewables and pushed more coal capacity into reserve or retirement. Still, the latest conflict has put thermal coal back in focus as a hedge against gas insecurity.

CERA data shows Europe's thermal coal imports fell to 37.4 million metric tons in 2025 from 81.7 million mt in 2022, reflecting structurally weaker coal demand as coal plants were idled or shuttered.

But utilities now see a greater chance of higher summer coal burn than in recent years, driven by renewed gas price volatility and lower storage levels. Market participants cited regional gas storage at 28.7% or 327.5 TWh.

"Coal is now cheaper than gas to run [although] coal plants won't be running baseload, but it looks like they might be running ahead of the gas units when necessary," a Switzerland-based trader said.

Coal imports to rise amid concerns over gas

With the war dragging on, European buyers are increasingly focused on inventory cover. The second quarter is typically a lean coal-burning period, which can leave utilities with lower stocks — including at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub — just as price signals begin to favor coal.

Market participants expect more spot buying from utilities and traders in the weeks ahead as they rebuild inventories for a potentially stronger burn season. CERA analysts forecast incremental gains in coal imports into Europe could remain limited, up to 1 million mt in April.

A Singapore-based trader echoed the sentiment, saying, "Coal demand is set to strengthen in Northwestern Europe as hard coal SRMC [Short-Run Marginal Costs] is now lower than gas SRMC."

After the conflict began, trades were heard for Platts-assessed CIF ARA 6,000 kcal/kg NAR coal for April loading as buyers sought to secure prompt tonnage amid a price spike. The war risk premium lifted the Platts CIF ARA 6,000 kcal/kg NAR price to $131.80/mt on March 3, its highest since Oct. 30, 2023, before it fell to $115.45/mt on March 18 and then rose again to $123.95/mt on March 19 following reports of prolonged repairs at Qatar's Ras Laffan facilities and potential issues for some long-term LNG contracts.

CERA analysts said, "Utilities may be back in the market as uncertainty regarding the length of the gas constraints and support for spot thermal coal prices raise near term concerns."

Even if Europe does not fully utilize its coal fleet through the summer, incremental coal generation could still be enough to lift consumption and pull in additional seaborne volumes to maintain adequate fuel cover.

Spreads flip, LNG disruption tightens outlook

The Platts German clean spark spreads for the front-quarter 50% efficiency fell to a multiyear low at negative Eur50.51/MWh March 19 amid the gas shock. At the same time, higher gas prices and softer carbon pushed clean dark spreads back into the money, with German baseload front-quarter 45% efficiency at Eur11.25/MWh and the Q3 clean dark spread rising to Eur21.80/MWh, the highest since August 2023, Platts data showed.

"Around 2 GW coal and 2.5 GW of lignite are going offline for maintenance in April," said Daniel Muir, principal power analyst at CERA. "It should be supportive of those remaining assets - some of which we can see peaking out during those non-solar and non-high wind hours," Muir added.

Nearest December European carbon allowances eased to Eur63.64/metric tons of CO2 equivalent, from their January peak of Eur92.09/mtCO2e, the highest EUA price since 2023, as officials called for a reform.

On carbon pricing, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that "the Emissions Trading System is working, [has] massively reduced gas consumption [and] driven major investments in the energy transition in the low-carbon energy sources like renewables and nuclear. But we need to modernize it and make it more flexible."

EU leaders at their March 19 summit in Brussels have called upon the EC to urgently present targeted measures across all components of electricity prices to lower prices and to address "excessive volatility" in the short term.

Qatar LNG disruption

European gas futures rallied on March 19 after Iran's strikes on Qatar's LNG facilities damaged two of Qatar's 14 LNG trains and curtailed 17% of export capacity, according to Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar's energy minister and CEO of QatarEnergy.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the Dutch TTF month-ahead at Eur61.94/MWh on March 19, the highest Platts value since January 2023.

Qatar exported 82.38 million mt of LNG in 2025, around 10% of it to Europe. But the Northfield East Train 1 project — expected to add 8 million mt/year by end-2026 — is now expected to face significant delays, weighing on forward supply expectations.

Traders said prices around Eur60/MWh were already dampening Asian gas demand as buyers shifted to cheaper alternatives, including coal. Chinese LNG demand remains lower year over year, aiding near-term LNG availability for Europe, but participants expect additional summer demand as Asia enters warmer months and Europe refills storage ahead of winter 2026-27.

Platts assessed JKM at $22.732/MMBtu at the March 20 Asia close, a $1.80/MMBtu premium to ICE TTF futures.