WPC 2026: China’s petrochemical industry faces profit squeeze amid capacity gains

This content is part of a series exploring key themes from the World Petrochemical Conference being held in Houston March 23-27.

China will actively respond to changes prompted by the conflict in the Middle East as it begins implementing its 15th five-year plan, while balancing the country's continued push to meet domestic petrochemical demand, panelists at the World Petrochemical Conference said March 27.

The country's position as a major global petrochemical producer has been cemented. Still, it is increasingly evident that China must adapt to a more competitive environment marked by squeezed margins, according to Xiangsheng Fu, vice chairman of China's Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation.

"While capacity and operating margins increase for petrochemicals, profit margins decreased," Fu said. "Profit reached a 10-year low. An increase in size doesn't equal more power or competitiveness."

Capacity push continues

Despite tepid profit margins, China remains dedicated to increasing its petrochemical capacity to meet domestic demand. More than 60% of global ethylene capacity additions from 2020 to 2025 came in China, yet the country still imported 6 million metric ton of ethylene last year, Fu said.

"The main purpose of increasing capacity is to meet domestic demand," he said.

The conflict in the Middle East is prompting China to pivot its strategies as 2026 is marked by regional turbulence and a complex environment, Fu said. The country has witnessed rising energy and feedstock costs in recent weeks.

Fu noted that there will also be an impact on food security, as the Middle East is a major supplier of fertilizers to the world.

BASF invests in China

China remains the largest and highest-growth petrochemical market globally, according to Thomas Kloster, president of BASF's performance chemical division, which is why the company continues to make "substantial" investments in new projects aimed at Chinese consumption.

BASF recently inaugurated an integrated chemical complex in Zhenjiang, Guangdong province, that produces base chemicals, intermediates and specialty chemicals, according to a company statement March 26.

The complex is the largest investment ever for the company. It has a nameplate ethylene capacity of 1 million mt/year, according to the company, with a cracker powered entirely by renewable energy.

Despite reduced olefin feedstock availability in Asia due to the Middle East conflict, Kloster confirmed that the site has maintained a stable supply of raw materials and that production continues as normal.

Platts CFR Northeast Asia assessment was up $40/mt from the previous close at $1,440/mt March 27, taking into consideration tradable indications heard at that level and below, and selling indications at $1,450-$1,500/mt.