Conab lifts Brazil 2026-27 soybean oil export forecast to 1.8 mil mt

Brazil's National Supply Company, or Conab, has raised its forecast for Brazilian soybean oil exports in 2026-27 by 400,000 metric tons to 1.8 million mt, while reducing its domestic consumption estimate, according to its second survey of the 2026-27 crop released Nov. 13.

The previous export forecast was 1.4 million mt. Conab attributed the revision to expectations that elevated volumes of Brazilian soybean oil will continue moving into the international market, even as its projections assume an increase in Brazil's mandatory biodiesel blend during 2027.

The agency reduced its 2026-27 domestic soybean oil consumption forecast by 440,000 mt to 11.19 million mt from 11.63 million mt. The reduction was broadly aligned with the increase in projected exports, indicating a shift in expected demand from the domestic market toward the export channel.

Conab's 2027 balance assumes Brazil's mandatory biodiesel blend will rise to B16, representing a 16% concentration of biodiesel in fossil diesel. The blend remained at B15 during 2026 after the proposed increase was not approved.

The continuation of B15 reduced anticipated soybean oil consumption by the domestic biodiesel industry and increased the volume available for export, according to Conab. Reflecting the additional availability, the agency raised its soybean oil export estimate for 2025-26 by 150,000 mt to 2.05 million mt from 1.9 million mt.

For 2026-27, Brazilian soybean oil production was projected at 12.84 million mt, while imports were estimated at 100,000 mt. Including beginning inventories of 635,800 mt, total supply was forecast at 13.58 million mt.

Conab reduced its forecast for 2026-27 soybean oil ending stocks by 49,400 mt to 587,500 mt. The lower inventory projection reflects the combined effect of domestic consumption and the higher export estimate.

The agency also increased its Brazilian soybean-crush forecast for 2026-27 by 109,000 mt to 63.87 million mt, citing expectations for stronger international demand for soybean oil. Its 2025-26 crush estimate was raised by 304,000 mt to 62.09 million mt.

The revisions point to greater Brazilian soybean oil availability for the international market during 2026-27, potentially adding pressure to the FOB Paranaguá export basis. However, the assumed introduction of B16 and lower projected ending stocks could provide support to domestic values and restrict export availability later in 2027.