Soybean futures dip as Brazilian real slides following Lula election win

Soybean futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade fell in Asian trading Oct. 26 after Brazil's real weakened sharply against the US dollar following President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's election victory, boosting expectations for stronger Brazilian soybean export competitiveness.

The front-month soybean contract on CBOT traded at $12.535/bushel at 4:46 am CDT (0946 GMT), down 1.2% from the previous settlement.

The Brazilian real was trading at 18 cents on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as of 4:47 am CDT, down 10.3% from the last settlement of 20 cents on Oct. 23.

"A depreciation in the Brazilian currency means greater returns on exports from Brazil, including soybeans," a trader with a US-based multinational agricultural trading firm said.

Brazil is the world's largest exporter of soybeans, followed by the US and Argentina.

The real appreciated against the US dollar after Flavio Bolsonaro beat Lula in the first round of the Brazilian presidential elections on Oct. 4.

"A weaker currency will help Brazilian exporters to ship out more soybeans for a greater return," a soybean trader based in Singapore said.

Brazil's National Supply Company, or Conab, estimated its soybean output for marketing year 2026-27 (January-December) at a record 181.6 million metric tons, up 0.7% year over year, the company said in a report Oct. 15. For MY 2025-26, Conab pegged Brazil's soybean production at 180.4 million mt, up 5.2% year over year.

S&P Global Energy CERA analysts forecast Brazil's MY 2026-27 soybean output at 177 million mt, down 2.2% year over year.

Conab has projected Brazil's soybean exports for MY 2026-27 at 118 million mt, 1.5% higher year over year. For MY 2025-26, Brazil's soybean exports are expected at 116.2 million mt, up 7.4% on year, it showed.

CERA pegged Brazil's MY 2026-27 soybean exports at 110 million mt, down 3.5% year over year.

However, Brazil's soybean exports are likely to be subdued over the coming few months due to the local lean supply season, a soybean exporter based in Santos said. Brazil's soybeans are currently in the sowing season and traders expect the supply to recover in January-February.

Brazil's soybean exports in September were 7.4 million mt, down 24.5% on month but up 1.4% year over year, data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade, or Secex, showed Oct. 6.

So far in 2026, Brazil has exported 100.2 million mt of soybeans, up 6.7% year over year, according to Secex. Of the total, 70 million mt were shipped to China, accounting for 69.9% of Brazil's soybean exports so far in 2026, the data showed.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed SOYBEX FOB Santos at $521.23/mt on Oct. 23, up $1.37/mt day over day.