Black Sea sunflower oil exports to lag in MY 2026-27, say Ukraine, Russian execs

Sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea region are expected to remain below historical levels in the marketing year 2026-27 (September-August) due to the recent escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, industry executives said at the Globoil vegetable oils conference in Mumbai Sept. 30.

In August and September, military strikes between Russia and Ukraine have damaged storage and terminal facilities in the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports and delayed vessel loading from the two largest sunflower oil suppliers in the world.

Ukraine's export logistics have improved in October compared with the previous month, but shipments are still expected to trail normal levels, said Andrii Paladii, president and trading director for vegetable oils and proteins at Inerco Trade SA.

"We expect around 300,000 metric tons of sunflower oil to flow out of Ukraine from October to March, which is almost half of the usual outflows from Ukraine," Paladii told a panel discussion.

India is projected to import around 700,000 metric tons of Ukrainian sunflower oil in MY 2026-27, while Europe will remain the country's largest demand center, Paladii said.

Russian exports are also forecast to lag last year's pace, according to Anton Gritsay, executive director of EFKO, one of Russia's main vegetable oil refiners and exporters.

Gritsay said Russia is expected to ship 150,000-170,000 mt of sunflower oil through Baltic ports, while rail exports to China are running at 50,000-70,000 mt per month, depending on the availability of flexibag containers. Another 50,000-70,000 mt is expected to move through Caspian Sea ports.

Combined, monthly Russian sunflower oil outflows are estimated at 250,000-300,000 mt between October and March, down from about 400,000 mt a year earlier, Gritsay said.

Despite slower exports, India is expected to remain Russia's largest buyer, with shipments forecast at 2 million-2.5 million mt in MY 2026-27, while Turkey could import another 1 million mt.

India is the largest buyer of vegetable oils, followed by China.

In the first 10 months of India's vegetable oil marketing year 2026-27 (November-October), sunflower oil imports were seen at 2.515 million mt, up from 2.4 million mt in MY 2025-26, data from trade body, the Solvents Extractors' Association of India showed.

Gritsay forecasts sunflower oil prices at around $1,450/mt for the current marketing year.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the price of sunflower oil FOB Black Sea Ukraine for November-loading unchanged at $1,130/mt Sept. 29.