FACTBOX: Black Sea grain trade strained by escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict

Escalating attacks on Black Sea ports, grain terminals and commercial vessels since July have disrupted grain export logistics from Russia and Ukraine during a key post-harvest shipping period.

Ukraine reported 67 attacks on port facilities in July, while Russian strikes on Odesa-region ports removed about one-third of Ukraine's grain export capacity, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.

On the Russian side, attacks on export infrastructure and shipping routes disrupted grain movements through the Black and Azov Seas.

The following are key facts about the impact of the attacks on Black Sea wheat and corn trade.

Wheat

Infrastructure

• Restrictions on the Kerch Strait and Azov-Don channel affected a route handling an estimated 28% of Russia's wheat exports.
• Attacks on export terminals in Novorossiysk strained Russia's southern grain-export corridor.
• Grain flows were redirected toward alternative terminals and export routes.
• CERA estimated that 1.7 million-2.1 million mt of Russian grain exports scheduled for July-August were placed at risk.
• Russian strikes put approximately 500,000 mt of Ukrainian wheat shipments scheduled for July-August at risk.

Trade flows

• Russia remained the world's largest wheat exporter in MY 2025-26, shipping 48 million mt and accounting for 21.1% of global wheat exports, USDA data showed.
• Ukraine exported 14.1 million mt of wheat in MY 2025-26, equivalent to a 6.2% share of global exports, USDA data showed.

• Russia and Ukraine accounted for 27.3% of global wheat exports in MY 2025-26, based on USDA data.
• Ukraine exported 935,332 mt of wheat in July, down from 1.6 million mt in June, while shipments during July 1-Aug. 14 totaled 1.29 million mt, compared with 1.52 million mt a year earlier, agriculture ministry data showed.
• Russian wheat exports fell to 1.6 million mt in July 2026 from 2.1 million mt a year earlier, according to SovEcon. The consultancy forecasts August exports at 3 million-3.4 million mt, down from 4.5 million mt in August 2025.
• USDA projects Russian wheat exports at 46 million mt and Ukrainian exports at 13.5 million mt in MY 2026/27.
• CERA projects Russian wheat exports at 48.5 million mt and Ukrainian wheat exports at 15.5 million mt in MY 2026/27.

Prices

• Black Sea wheat prices rose in mid-July as attacks on ports, grain terminals and shipping routes heightened concerns over export availability from the region, but later retreated as weak importer demand, favorable Black Sea crop prospects and ample Ukrainian carryover stocks weighed on sentiment.
• The Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Milling Wheat Marker climbed to $236.75/mt on July 15 before falling to $215/mt on Aug. 20.

Corn

Infrastructure

• Slow exports and blocked port operations have reduced grain-stock turnover ahead of Ukraine's corn harvest, increasing pressure on storage infrastructure.
• Ukraine could face a domestic grain-storage shortfall of 8 million-11 million mt if exports remain slow, according to Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky.
• Rising storage pressure is forcing producers to rely more heavily on alternative storage solutions and inventory management ahead of the new crop.
• Alternative export channels, including Danube routes and western-border corridors, remain available but cannot fully offset reduced Black Sea export capacity.
• Alternative routes, including Romania's Constanta port, have absorbed part of the export flow displaced from Black Sea terminals.

Trade flows

• Ukraine exported 23 million mt of corn in MY 2025-26 (October-September), accounting for 10.4% of global corn exports, up from 20 million mt a year earlier, USDA data showed.
• Russia exported 4 million mt of corn in MY 2025-26, USDA data showed.
• Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 12.2% of global corn exports in MY 2025-26, based on USDA data.
• USDA projects Ukrainian corn exports at 22 million mt in MY 2026-27.
• Ukraine exported 1.17 million mt of corn in July, down from 1.95 million mt in June, agriculture ministry data showed.
• Exports during July 1-Aug. 14 reached 1.4 million mt, while Aug. 1-14 shipments totaled 89,000 mt versus 184,000 mt a year earlier, ministry data showed.
• CERA projects Ukraine's corn exports at 26.5 million mt in MY 2026-27.

Prices

• Black Sea corn prices rallied in July on concerns over export disruptions and crop risks, but later retreated as maritime exports slowed, grain inventories accumulated and buyers shifted to alternative origins.

• Platts assessed Ukraine corn FOB Black Sea at $221.25/mt on Aug. 20, up $0.25/mt day over day.