INTERVIEW: Cambodia aims to top 1 mln mt rice exports in 2026 as costs and risks mount

Cambodia expects rice exports to exceed 1 million metric tons in 2026, driven by market diversification, government-backed financing support and growing demand from China, Europe and the Philippines, Oknha Lay Chhun Hour, also known as Andy, president of the Cambodia Rice Federation, told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

The country exported nearly 470,000 mt over January-April and remains on track to achieve its long-standing target of 1 million mt in exports, Chhun Hour said.

"Cambodia has almost reached the government's 1 million mt export goal that was set many years ago, and this year we expect exports to surpass that level," he said.

The 1 million mt rice export target was officially set in August 2010 under the leadership of former Prime Minister Samdech Techo Hun Sen.

Cambodia's rice exports in the first four months of 2026 rose 66% year over year, supported by strong shipments to Europe, China and regional Asian markets, according to Chhun Hour.

Chhun Hour said the federation's strategy is centered on three pillars: market diversification, financial facilitation and brand development.

China remains the federation's most important rice trade partner. Chhun Hour said the federation is also seeking to diversify exports by expanding into new markets, including the Middle East, other Asian markets, West Africa, Oceania and the US.

"We focus on the middle- to high-end segment and on leveraging Cambodia's natural advantage in premium rice varieties," he said.

Chhun Hour highlighted strong demand for Cambodian premium fragrant rice varieties, including SKO, SRO and Jasmine rice, in Europe, while demand for OM 5451 rice from China and the Philippines has also increased significantly.

"OM 5451 prices were around $450/mt a few weeks ago and are now above $500/mt," he said.

Govt support

Chhun Hour said the Cambodian government has introduced emergency funding programs to support millers and stabilize paddy prices during harvest seasons.

The low-interest funding, facilitated through the Ministry of Economy and Finance, allows millers to purchase paddy directly from farmers and increase warehouse stocks.

"This year, the government released emergency funds to support both farmers and millers after paddy prices dropped significantly earlier in the year," Chhun Hour said.

The federation has also been collaborating with authorities to lower production costs -- particularly electricity and logistics expenses -- in order to enhance competitiveness against suppliers such as Thailand, Vietnam and India.

The government has allocated funding through the Agriculture and Rural Development Bank and credit guarantee schemes to support millers' working capital needs.

Platts assessed Thai Hom Mali 100% grade B at $1,210/mt FOB FCL on May 8, up $100/mt month-on-month. Platts Vietnamese Fragrant 5% rice was assessed at $500/mt FOB on May 8, up $49/mt month over month.

Chhun Hour said Cambodian rice prices are often higher than those of competing Asian origins, but emphasized that the country is deliberately pursuing a value-driven export strategy rather than focusing on volume.

"Cambodia is shifting away from a 'volume at all costs' model toward a more value-driven strategy," he said.

Price hikes expected

Cambodian export prices are anticipated to rise 5%-10% over the next three months due to higher shipping, insurance and fertilizer costs linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to Chhun Hour.

"The domestic market will remain stable to slightly upward, but FOB export prices are expected to rise because of higher logistics and freight costs," he said.

Chhun Hour expects fragrant rice (Phka Malis) prices to potentially rise as high as $870/mt from July onward.

European buyers have been actively securing SKO and Phka Malis varieties, while China and the Philippines are driving demand for OM 5451, he said.

While Cambodia has not yet experienced severe weather disruptions, Chhun Hour said concerns around El Nino and below-normal rainfall forecasts in parts of Asia have created uncertainty among farmers and policymakers.

Many farmers are reducing leased farmland this year due to rising production costs and uncertainty over future rice prices, according to Chhun Hour.

"We cannot promise that rice prices will increase enough to fully offset production cost increases," he said.

If El Nino affects countries such as the Philippines, demand could strengthen further, supporting higher regional prices, Chhun Hour said.

Trade deals

In March, Cambodia renewed its 18-month, 400,000 mt memorandum of understanding with China. While historical supply constraints meant Cambodia rarely exhausted this quota, Chhun Hour said ongoing expansions in milling, drying and warehousing capacity should enable larger shipments to China in 2026.

Cambodia is also increasing shipments to the Philippines through business-to-business trade, with exports to the country reaching about 40,000-50,000 mt in the first quarter of 2026, according to Chhun Hour.

The country exported up to 50,000 mt to the Philippines in Q1 2026 and has signed memoranda of understanding with the Singapore Food Agency and the Cambodia Chamber of Commerce in New Zealand to expand its market share in the region.