Global soybean participants await US-China meeting with mixed expectations

As the planned US-China summit approaches, participants in the global soybean market have mixed views on its prospects, with Chinese sources saying China could commit to buying US soybeans, while US sources are doubtful.

The meeting with President Xi Jinping is due to take place May 14-15, according to US President Donald Trump.

As the date nears, US sources are not convinced that an agreement for China to purchase another large amount of US soybeans could be reached.

"China meeting in focus," a trader in the FOB Gulf market said. "I have no idea if something will come out of it, but I doubt it."

"As we approach the US-China meetings next week, there's chatter about agriculture purchases being discussed again," a trader in the CIF New Orleans market said. "But what, how much and when are not really being talked about. I just don't feel like anything new will come out of it."

US sources have expressed concerns about China refusing to buy US soybeans amid the conflict at the Strait of Hormuz, with oil tankers being denied transit to China.

As of May 7, the US was awaiting a response from Iran regarding the American proposal to end the war.

"Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end," US President Donald Trump said on his social media platform Truth Social May 6. "And the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before."

Sources in Asia said token purchases of US soybeans could be agreed upon despite the war.

"I think soybeans may not be the most important issue," a second Chinese trader said. "But they will certainly be one of the topics. I do think they will still buy US soybeans -- it just depends on the form it takes, and whether commercial buyers will be allowed to step in and purchase. Most likely, it will still be state-backed buyers."

A Brazilian analyst said: "A possible path forward is leaving things as they are. Xi commits to visiting the US this year, Trump promises to lift fentanyl-related tariffs and China signals cooperation through commercial moves such as aircraft purchases, honoring the commitment to buy 25 million tons of soybeans, with the possibility of buying other grains."

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans for June shipment at $472.06/metric ton May 6, down $6.16/mt from the previous business day, and the outright price for CIF NOLA for May shipment at $468.76/mt, down $6.15/mt from May 5.

Platts also assessed CFR China soybean month-one June shipment down $1.29/mt day over day at $502.01/mt May 6, and the SOYBEX FOB Santos soybean contract for June loading at $451.88/metric ton, $2.48/mt lower than the previous assessment.