European ammonia price stalls as market awaits Tampa settlement

European ammonia prices have flatlined as the market awaits guidance from the next Tampa contract price settlement.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed CFR NW Europe duty paid/duty free at $905/mt April 30, flat for the seventh day in a row.

It comes as the market awaits a May agreement for the delivery of ammonia cargoes by Yara to Mosaic at the US port of Tampa. The monthly agreement is highly influential and watched by the global market as a basis for sentiment and direction. The settlement is usually communicated ahead of the beginning of a new month, but no agreement had been shared at the time of publication.

Some sources said they were hesitant to make a prediction on the next price due to confusing supply and demand signals in the current market, although an increase of some level was unanimously tipped.

The European price has stabilized after two months of consistent price increases, triggered by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East and the subsequent impact on global ammonia and natural gas supplies.

The import price hike has been sustained by existing supply outages, like the shutdown of Nutrien's 2.2-million-metric-ton capacity plants in Trinidad and Tobago since October; and new interruptions, like gas cuts in Algeria in late March. This is despite easing natural gas prices, which have helped drive down the estimated cost of domestic ammonia production to about $600/mt.

Spot trades to Northwest Europe have helped spur the import price higher as buyers struggle to find available cargoes for prompt delivery, including most recently a spot purchase heard April 21 for 18,000 mt at about $905/mt CFR NW Europe duty paid/duty free.

However, the latest trading week saw no fresh CFR business. A seller to Northwest Europe described the market as "sluggish."

"Nothing good will happen on this market for buyers," they said.