India could double wheat export quota amid higher inventory: sources

India's wheat export quota is likely to be increased from the current 2.5 million metric tons for wheat and 500,000 mt for wheat products, potentially doubling amid rising inventory levels, sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

However, increasing the wheat export quota would not automatically translate into increased demand, as Indian wheat prices remain at a premium over other global wheat origins, according to sources.

"The Indian government is mulling to increase the wheat quota because we are sitting over stocks five times the buffer norms, just like they expanded sugar export quota amid higher production," a Madhya Pradesh-based exporter said. "The government is holding around 60-70% of wheat, while interest, warehousing costs are piling up."

India held 23.622 million mt of wheat in its inventories as of March, 71% above buffer norms and 76% higher year over year, according to the Food Corporation of India's data.

India imposed a wheat export ban in May 2022, which it lifted in February 2026, allowing an export quota of 2.5 million mt.

Since then, some volumes have been shipped to Nepal and the United Arab Emirates, according to data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority.

Bangladesh could be the next destination for higher volumes of Indian wheat exports, with shipments anticipated to begin soon, according to multiple Indian trade sources and local news reports.

"India wheat of Bihar state is at parity only for North Bangladesh and that too by rack," Ankit Maheshwari, Director, Full Circle Commodities, said. "Bangladesh imports around 6.7-7.2 million mt of wheat annually but right now, amid higher freights, Indian wheat is competitive with Argentina and the Black Sea for limited quantity."

Indian mid-protein milling wheat was being offered at close to $280/mt CFR to Bangladesh, nearly at par with Argentinian milling wheat, according to a local trade source.

Price, quality preferences restrict East Asian demand for Indian wheat

Southeast Asia's appetite for Indian wheat, both in the feed and flour milling industries, has remained subdued since the announcement of India's wheat export quota earlier in the year, as industry sources point toward uncompetitive prices and quality preferences.

"Millers, especially in Southeast Asia, are reluctant to switch to Indian wheat mainly because we do not have a consistent export policy," said a local trade source.

A Vietnamese flour miller said offers remained elevated compared to other origins, and also noted past quality issues with black fungus, adding that Vietnam would "stay away" from Indian wheat. The sentiment was echoed by several Indonesian flour millers, who said a hefty discount would be needed to capture demand away from Australia, South America and the Black Sea.

And while some Asian feed millers had initially mulled the possibility of low-protein Indian wheat for feed, Australian and US low-protein wheat remains more competitive regionally.

Platts assessed Australian Premium White wheat at $265/mt FOB Kwinana April 15, up by $2/mt month over month.

Nonetheless, there is potential bearishness ahead for Indian wheat prices, particularly as the new crop harvest begins.

"As harvest picks up the market is expected to weaken significantly," said an Indian broker, adding that the Indian crop "is not looking as comfortable as it was a month back" due to adverse weather.

Some government support could make Indian wheat attractive for buyers, the Madhya Pradesh-based exporter said.

If the government provides subsidies to wheat exporters, like it provided 30% subsidy to sugar exporters three years back, then Indian wheat could be offered at competitive prices, the exporter added.

"If global prices increase by $10 then we may see better movement from vessels," a market participant based in Delhi said.