Black Sea wheat prices rise as currency pressure, Middle East war cut margins

Black Sea wheat prices edged higher as traders weighed geopolitical risk against softer demand and a strong Russian ruble squeezing exporter margins.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, Milling Wheat Marker rose 2.25% to $238.50/metric ton on April 14, after touching $240/mt on March 24.

Market participants linked the late-March spike to heightened volatility since the Middle East war began, with prices briefly revisiting the highs last seen in August 2025, when harvest delays and sluggish exports tightened nearby availability.

Exporters are now watching currency moves, with the ruble recently falling back toward January lows near Rb75 to the dollar, a level some sellers say is too strong to support competitive dollar offers.

"Nothing matches. Forex rate is too low," a Russian seller said. A buyer of Russian wheat said the market could "go back to 240-ish" as a result.

Behind the flat offer sheets is a deepening margin squeeze across the Black Sea. Traders said farm-level economics have deteriorated as fertilizer and diesel costs climbed, leaving growers with thin or negative returns. For Ukraine, the additional strain from the war with Russia continues to show up in labour shortages and logistical bottlenecks, market participants said.

Even so, shipments from Russia remain heavy. As of April 10, Russia's total wheat exports reached 36.6 million mt, about 3% above last year, and consistent with expectations for the July 2025-June 2026 season to reach 44 million mt, according to S&P Global CERA.

CERA expects April exports to average nearly 4 million mt. Since the start of April, Egypt (172,000 mt) and Turkey (146,500 mt) were the top buyers of Russian wheat, the Russian Grain Union said.

Demand was being described as steady but "uninspiring" as importers look toward the new crop and take comfort from ample old-crop coverage.

"Demand is there for Black Sea wheat, but big state tenders are mostly done on the old crop," one buyer in the UAE said, pointing to Saudi Arabia and Jordan recently buying July shipments, while Algeria and Tunisia were seen largely covered through June. Importers in Turkey also cited expectations of a record Turkish harvest that could curb import needs.

"For Egypt, there is still job to be done on freight," one Ukrainian seller said, estimating freight now in the mid-$20s/mt since the war began. Ukrainian wheat prices have recovered the least from the March peak, traders said, as heavy local fundamentals weigh on bids.

"I'm bearish on Ukraine values," another seller said.

CERA forecasts Ukraine's carryout stocks at 4.6 million mt and total exports at 12 million mt this season. Since the start of April, about 362,000 mt of wheat have been shipped from Ukraine, mainly to Egypt at 170,000 mt, Spain at 78,000 mt, Djibouti and Algeria, while the overall export pace is running about 24% behind last year, according to a line-up from traders.

Ukraine 11.5% protein wheat was assessed at $232.50/mt April 14, a $6/mt discount to the Platts Milling Wheat Marker. Ukraine's CPT new-crop milling wheat was heard at $218/mt and feed wheat at $215/mt.

In Romania-Bulgaria, traders described a similarly quiet tone. In the CVB market, Romanian exports since the start of January included Saudi Arabia (359,000 mt), Egypt (508,000 mt) and Jordan (241,000 mt), while Bulgaria shipped mainly to Algeria (294,000 mt), Tunisia (183,000 mt) and Egypt (97,500 mt), lineup data from traders showed.

Prices are steady at the low-$240s/mt and origination values were down about Eur2-3, a local Romanian trader said. CPT old-crop Constanta prices were heard at Eur205/mt and new-crop at Eur198/mt on April 15, with some forward sales secured. The CVB 12.5% spread to the Platts Milling Wheat Marker was at a $2/mt premium as of April 14.

"It is difficult to predict where prices will go in the near-term. I haven't heard any strong demand. Maybe buyers will be stubborn, but there is no visible ending to this story," one Romanian trader said.