Ukrainian corn prices lag last year's levels despite Mideast conflict

Ukrainian corn prices remain well below last year's levels, despite a modest uptick driven by the ongoing Middle East conflict and rising fuel and freight costs.

Platts assessed Ukraine corn FOB POC at $226/mt on April 13, down $17/mt from $243/mt on April 15, 2025. The prices have risen by $4/mt since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28. Platts assessed Ukraine corn FOB POC at $222/mt on Feb. 27.

Market participants attribute the lower prices to increased Ukrainian supply -- driven by higher production -- and relatively subdued demand compared to last season. S&P Global Energy CERA estimates Ukraine's corn production at 30.7 million mt for MY 2025/2026, up from 26.8 million mt in MY 2024/2025.

Traders and buyers across Europe are divided on the implications. Some, like a corn buyer from Italy, view the situation as an opportunity.

"The corn prices in Ravenna are still cheap considering the world situation because of supply from Ukraine," the buyer said. "Last year, the corn prices rose in the Italian market due to a lack of supply and high prices from Ukraine."

However, others find Ukrainian corn less attractive due to higher freight rates. A buyer from the Netherlands noted, "Ukrainian corn does not calculate to North-West Europe at the moment. To the Atlantic, the US origin is much cheaper."

Ukrainian traders also expressed a similar concern about US prices being competitive in several European destinations. A seller from Ukraine said that "prices are lower year over year; however EU mostly buys American corn this season, except Italy."

Port line-up data shared by traders shows Turkey was the leading destination for Ukrainian corn in March. Among European destinations, Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands received 338,093 mt, 286,084 mt, and 198,765 mt, respectively.

Meanwhile, demand from Middle Eastern countries, including Turkey and Egypt, remains sluggish. Turkish importers cite the availability of competitively priced feed wheat, which has led feed producers to reduce corn usage. "TMO (Turkish Grain Board) will not introduce an import quota for corn in the near future because they have too much low-quality wheat and they are selling it easily now," one importer said. "They can sell all their feed wheat before the start of next season."

In Egypt, Ukrainian corn is mainly used for spot coverage due to quality concerns, while South American corn dominates the market. From January to March 2026, about 70% of corn arriving at Egyptian ports was of Brazilian origin, with Ukraine accounting for only 22%. "A lot of Argentine corn is coming to Egypt, and the very bad quality of Ukrainian corn restricts its demand," a local buyer said.