US shrimp market affected by uncertainty, seasonal dynamics

Geopolitical uncertainty and evolving seasonal supply trends continued to shape sentiment across the US shrimp market in the week ended April 10, as participants weighed rising costs, global production and muted demand conditions.

Rising oil prices and ongoing global tensions have increased production and transportation costs across key exporting regions, though the impact has varied by origin. Higher oil costs have particularly affected Vietnam, where processors rely on raw material imports from India, contributing to elevated production costs and higher prices. Prior market indications reflected this trend, with Vietnam peeled, deveined, tail-on 16/20 shrimp heard at $5.95/pound, compared with $5.05/lb from India and $5.70/lb from Indonesia, highlighting a widening spread across origins driven by differing cost structures.

Geopolitical developments, including tariffs and Middle East war-related disruptions, take time to filter through the market, according to a market participant. Therefore, these cost pressures have not yet translated directly into pricing across all key origins. Higher input costs have been absorbed across parts of the supply chain to maintain competitiveness, limiting exporters' ability to raise offer levels. Suppliers, particularly in India, have continued to absorb higher processing and production costs to remain competitive with other origins such as Ecuador, according to one importer. Freight dynamics have also remained complex, as shipping rates are influenced not only by fuel costs but also by container availability and competition, meaning increases in oil prices have not consistently resulted in proportional increases in freight, the importer added.

While higher oil prices are expected to eventually push prices higher, the US market remains well supplied in the near term, with existing inventory delaying any immediate price response. The importer noted that while higher costs may emerge over time, their sustainability will depend on buyer acceptance, as elevated prices could lead to reduced consumption or substitution toward alternative proteins, ultimately feeding back into weaker demand.

Supply and demand impact

Seasonal supply trends and demand conditions have played a more immediate role in shaping the current market sentiment.

India has not yet returned to full production capacity, as ponds were not stocked as aggressively, limiting export volumes and delaying the expected impact of the harvest season, one importer said. In contrast, Ecuador continues to dominate supply into the US market, supported by more consistent availability.

Production trends in India are also expected to weigh on longer-term supply. According to another market participant, Indian production and exports are expected to decline in 2026 relative to 2025, as farmers responded to 2025 tariff uncertainty by reducing stocking densities to manage risk. While this could result in tighter supply over time, the importer noted that demand has not strengthened as expected, suggesting that weaker buying interest may also be contributing to the current market balance.

Price declines typically associated with peak harvest periods have been limited, according to an importer, adding that the market has eased only slightly before stabilizing in recent weeks. The market has remained more supported than usual for this point in the seasonal cycle, with no significant influx of supply weighing on values, said the importer, who added that levels are likely to hold around current ranges in the near term.

Platts assessed US shrimp PDTO 16/20 CIF New York at $4.25/lb on April 10, up from $4.10/lb earlier in the week and $4/lb the previous week, reflecting a market that has remained firmer than expected despite geopolitical uncertainty and rising costs, with limited seasonal downside and restrained supply growth.

Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.