Sulfur, acid markets unmoved by Middle East ceasefire amid supply doubts

Global sulfur and sulfuric acid markets remained largely unchanged April 8 after the announcement of a temporary US-Iran ceasefire, as participants continued to point to persistent supply tightness across the region.

The limited response comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran tied to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Market participants said the short duration and uncertainty surrounding implementation were insufficient to alter sulfur flows or ease existing constraints for sulfuric acid supply.

"Even if Hormuz reopens, it will be a slow trickle of vessels," a Europe-based trader said, leaving regional supply constrained.

In Asia, the Iran ceasefire has had little immediate impact on sulfuric acid market fundamentals, with participants pointing to continued tightness in supply rather than any easing in sentiment.

A China‑based trader said the ceasefire duration appeared too short to meaningfully affect sulfur‑linked feedstock flows, particularly for sulfuric acid producers relying on imported sulfur.

"The ceasefire period is very limited, and it doesn't change sulfuric acid availability," a China-based trader said. "We don't see how supply tightness can be resolved in just a couple of weeks."

Bullish prices, tight supply

Europe-based sources expressed the same sentiment, noting that the European sulfuric acid market would remain firm as the impacts of the Middle East war persisted, leaving sulfur prices bullish and supply for both sulfur and acid tight.

Platts last assessed sulfur prices April 2 at $650/mt CFR China and at $469-$710/mt FOB Middle East. Sulfuric acid prices assessed April 1 were at $165-$170/mt FOB China and at $200/mt FOB West Europe.

Looking ahead, sources in Europe said prices were due for a correction, but current fundamentals in the market would keep prices propped up in the short term.

Several Asia-based traders highlighted that the constrained sulfuric acid availability was unlikely to improve in the near term, given ongoing production limitations and logistical challenges.

While some sources said the ceasefire could allow for temporary improvements in crude oil and associated sulfur flows, including limited ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz, they cautioned that any relief would likely be short term, with broader supply chain constraints continuing to support sulfuric acid prices across the region.

Halted production

While the temporary ceasefire was welcome, according to one Middle East sulfur producer, the reality remained that sulfur production stayed widely halted in the region due to recent attacks, leaving lasting damage to refineries across the Middle East.

"The ceasefire could change everything, but for now it is unclear what it actually means since I have not seen any sulfur vessels coming through," a second Europe-based trader said. "We will see if this ceasefire actually materializes, as I have heard there are still ongoing attacks. Unless there is a huge change in the situation, we won't see any price correction."

In the Americas, the feeling was the same, a North America-based source said, with the ceasefire prompting a positive reaction in the market overall but its durability remaining uncertain.

Industry sources indicated that the process of clearing ships from the region will be lengthy and that it was uncertain if sulfur shipments would receive priority. The source noted that there was no straightforward solution for the global recovery of lost supply, suggesting that disruptions may persist for an extended period.

Too early to tell

A US-based trader said it was much too early to predict the effects of the ceasefire.

"It should loosen things once vessels start moving through, as it will free up sulfur, but let's see how the geopolitical situation develops," the trader said.

 Similarly, a South America-based buyer said the ceasefire announcement could reduce freight rates and bring back some offers to Brazil.

However, the buyer said, "I don't see a significant downside for prices of sulfuric acid yet, as sulfur remains firm, and with export restrictions."

With the same buyer source adding that the situation is still uncertain, with new information reported that Strait of Hormuz was closed again and threats from Iran to break the ceasefire, any relief could be short-lived.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed sulfur at $750/mt FOB Vancouver (spot) April 2 and sulfuric acid at $255/mt CFR US Gulf April 1.