Brazil sets new records as global soybean leader amid US-China trade tensions

With the 2025-26 harvest entering its final stages, Brazil is poised to further cement its status as the leading player in the global soybean market, achieving record shares in both production and exports this year.

The significance of Brazilian soybeans is heightened by ongoing trade tensions between the US -- the world's second-largest exporter -- and China, the largest global buyer of the commodity.

According to analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA, Brazil is expected to produce a historic 182 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025-26, accounting for 42.2% of global output -- a record share. Ten years ago, Brazil's share was just 30.3%.

On the export front, CERA analysts project shipments will reach 112 million mt in 2025-26, representing 59.2% of global soybean trade. This figure virtually matches the share seen in the 2022-23 cycle and compares to 38.8% a decade ago.

Soybean cultivation in Brazil accelerated in the 2000s, driven primarily by China's appetite for the crop. Growing domestic demand for soybean oil in the biodiesel industry and vast available farmland also contributed to this expansion.

In 2025-26, Brazil's soybean acreage reached nearly 50 million hectares, with 64% harvested as of March 18, according to CERA analysts.

While Brazil's dominance in the global soybean market has grown, the US has seen its share decline, though it remains a significant player.

CERA analysts expect US soybean production to total 116 million mt in 2025-26, representing 26.9% of global output -- a drop from 33.8% in 2015-16.

A similar trend is seen in US soybean exports, which are projected to reach 42.9 million mt in 2025-26, or 22.6% of global exports. Ten years ago, the US share was 39.8%.

Brazil surpassed the US as the world's top soybean producer in the 2017-18 season. In terms of exports, Brazil has led since 2012-13.

Prices

This shift in the global soybean market, with Brazil increasingly established as the leader, has had a direct impact on commodity prices.

The correlation between Brazilian and US soybean prices has steadily decreased, reaching its lowest level in 2025 amid the ongoing US-China tariff dispute.

On March 24, Platts assessed the price of Brazilian soybeans FOB Santos for shipment in May at $431.39/mt, up 6.5% year over year. Meanwhile, US soybeans FOB New Orleans for loading in May were valued at $456.72/mt, up 13.8% year over year.

Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.