INFOGRAPHIC: Middle East fertilizer shock tightens spring nutrient supply

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East on Feb. 28 has rapidly driven up global fertilizer prices, with the region's role as a major exporter amplifying market volatility.

Granular urea prices have surged 38.8% during the critical spring application season — from below $500/mt in late February to $680/mt by March 13. Ammonia logistics have also been strained, as vessel delays and halted traffic near the Strait of Hormuz impact roughly 24% of seaborne ammonia exports, pushing prices up by 11.6%.

Sulfur supply disruptions are intensifying the squeeze, as the Middle East accounts for nearly half of global seaborne sulfur production. Daily shipments of 45,000-50,000 mt through the Strait of Hormuz have been affected, and alternative ports like Yanbu cannot match these volumes. Spot sulfur prices (excluding Iran) rose to $695-$700/mt by March 12, up $200/mt since the conflict began.

The ripple effect is global: Baltic and North African granular urea prices have climbed 32%-37% in the same period, highlighting how quickly Middle East supply shocks translate into higher costs for agricultural producers worldwide.