China to maintain phosphate export suspension despite Middle East war: sources

China is unlikely to relax its phosphate fertilizer export suspension, despite the war in the Middle East, with multiple traders and producers saying on March 3-4 that the policy is tied to domestic priorities rather than short-term geopolitical developments.

Officials from the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission said in December that the country will halt phosphate fertilizer exports through August 2026, Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, reported Dec. 11, 2025.

"China won't relax its export restrictions policy," a China-based trader said, adding that the suspension reflects national priorities such as food security and supply stability. "Global happenings are not a priority when making policy decisions."

Another China-based trader said exports of phosphorus fertilizers are not expected to resume in the near term, noting that China is currently in a peak domestic fertilizer consumption season. "Ensuring food security comes first," the trader said.

Market participants said the ongoing conflict has added upward pressure to sulfur prices. The Middle East, including Iran, is a key sulfur-producing region, and any disruption could drive sulfur prices higher, raising production costs for phosphate fertilizers.

Sulfur is an important raw material for producing phosphate fertilizers such as DAP and MAP. It is used to make sulfuric acid, which is then reacted with phosphate rock to produce phosphoric acid, a key ingredient in phosphate fertilizer production.

"Sulfur prices have skyrocketed, which would impact phosphate fertilizer raw materials," a third China-based trader said, adding that nitrogen, phosphate and potash prices are all expected to trend higher in the near term. Currently, the trader described the market as being in a wait-and-see mode.

Platts assessed China CFR sulfur at $519-522/mt on Feb. 26, down from $530/mt on Feb. 19.

Multiple traders also said that government-to-government supply arrangements are unlikely this year.

A China-based producer said that even if the Middle East conflict ends soon, China is unlikely to adjust its export policy, as short-term events rarely trigger changes. However, the producer added that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead authorities to consider G2G agreements if supply disruptions become more severe.

Platts assessed China FOB diammonium phosphate at $680/mt on Feb. 26, unchanged week over week.