Traders monitor Argentina H5N1 case; Brazil supply in focus

A confirmed case of H5N1 bird flu in commercial poultry in Argentina on Feb. 23 is being monitored by poultry traders, with participants saying the broader market impact will depend on whether the situation extends beyond Argentina.

Argentina's National Food Safety and Quality Service confirmed the outbreak and said exports to countries requiring disease-free status would be temporarily suspended. In 2025, Argentina exported 163,992 metric tons of chicken meat, equivalent to roughly 13,500-14,000 mt per month, according to official statistics. China, South Africa, Chile and Hong Kong were among its main destinations.

Market participants said any sustained disruption could tighten availability for those buyers, potentially redirecting demand toward Brazil.

"Brazil will end up supplying Argentina's volume. This movement will drive prices up," one Brazilian exporter said, adding that offers for April shipments to China are already being raised.

At the same time, traders largely downplayed the probability of the outbreak spreading into Brazil.

"Small chance," one trader said, citing Brazil's "very good sanitary system." Another described wider contagion as "rarely possible," pointing to biosecurity controls.

Some Brazilian participants flagged seasonal conditions as a variable. "We are approaching a colder period in southern Brazil, which causes us some concern," one source said.

Importers said procurement strategies remain unchanged for now. "Argentina is not a main origin for us," one regional buyer said, adding that purchasing decisions would only shift materially if Brazil's sanitary status were affected.

Separately, a Brazilian trader said Argentine-origin product already in stock continues to be offered, mainly grillers and chicken leg quarters, though recently produced volumes are not being marketed.

"Saudi Arabia has suspended volumes exported from Buenos Aires," the trader said. "The United Arab Emirates should remain unchanged within a 10 km ban radius."

Platts assessed chicken breast CIF Middle East at $2,350/mt on Feb. 25, up from $2,320/mt on Feb. 20, and FCA Brazil chicken legs were assessed at $2,536/mt on Feb. 25, compared with $2,566/mt on Feb. 20.

Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.