ANALYSIS: Tariff gap likely to keep China’s soybean imports anchored to Brazil

China's soybean imports in 2025 showed a further tilt toward Brazil as trade tensions curtailed US flows for much of the year, a shift expected to carry into 2026 due to the tariff difference between US and Brazilian supplies.

Brazil is expected to increase its share in China's soybean imports in 2026, supported by competitive prices, exportable surplus and the tariff advantage, traders with three multinational grain trading firms said.

In 2025, China further deepened its reliance on Brazil to meet its domestic requirements, according to Brazil-based traders.

In 2025, Brazil remained China's dominant supplier, accounting for 73.6% of China's soybean imports, compared with 71% in 2024, data from the General Administration of Customs published Jan. 20 showed.

China imported a record 111.82 million metric tons of soybeans in 2025, up 6.5% from 2024, according to China Customs data. Of that, Brazil's import share reached 82.33 million mt, up 10.3% from 2024.

S&P Global Energy CERA projects China's soybean imports at 110 million mt in marketing year 2025-26 (October-September), up 2% from MY 2024-25.

China currently levies a 13% import duty on US-origin soybeans, including a 10% retaliatory tariff and a 3% most-favored-nation rate, compared with just a 3% MFN duty on Brazilian cargoes.

CERA analysts in a Feb. 6 report said US soybeans, excluding tariffs, were uncompetitive, priced at around $500/mt CIF China, while Brazilian-origin soybeans were priced at approximately $452/mt, leaving private crushers with little incentive to buy US cargoes.

Brazil's National Supply Company, or Conab, raised its marketing year 2025-26 (January-December) soybean production projection to a record 178 million mt in its report released Feb. 12, up 3.8% year over year. For MY 2025-26, Conab projected Brazil's soybean exports at 112.2 million mt, up 3.7% from the MY 2024-25.

Apart from Brazil, China also increased its soybean purchases from Argentina in 2025 as Chinese buyers diversified within low‑tariff origins. China imported 7.89 million mt of Argentine soybeans, up 92.3% year over year, China's customs data showed.

Pedro Dejneka, founder of MD Commodities, said China will continue to buy South American soybeans "as long as they are more competitive than US beans," adding that Brazil's supply has already reduced China's need to buy US soybeans, making the US more of a residual seller.

"From a purely cash market fundamentals standpoint, China has very little reason to pay higher prices to secure US soybeans," Dejneka said.

US prospects still shadowed

US soybean exports to China fell sharply in 2025 due to the trade conflict. During 2025, US shipments to China fell 24.1% year over year to 16.8 million mt, according to China customs data.

Amid its ongoing tariff conflict with the US, China halted US soybean purchases from June to late October. China resumed US soybean imports after an Oct. 30 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, after which China withdrew additional tariffs effective Nov. 10.

In October 2025, the US said China would purchase 12 million mt of US soybeans in the current season after a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea.

Trump also said that China will import 25 million mt of US-origin soybeans in MY 2026-27.

On Feb. 4, US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that China was considering increasing its purchases of US soybeans in MY 2025-26 (September-August) to 20 million mt.

However, despite ramping up purchases, China's imports have remained sharply lower due to the higher tariff levied on US soybeans, China-based market participants said.

Since Oct. 30, China has so far booked 10.17 million mt of US soybeans, down 50.7% on year, according to the US Department of Agriculture data released Feb. 12.

China-based trade sources said all recent purchases have been made by state-owned COFCO and Sinograin, which have been shielded from tariffs.

"Due to the slow pace of auction sales and the impending arrival of Brazilian new-crop soybeans in late March, US soybeans are likely to enter state reserves as private buyers opt for cheaper Brazilian beans," CERA said in a report on Feb. 13.

Since October, China has held only four soybean reserve auctions, with total offtake at about 2 million mt, according to CERA analysts.

Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB New Orleans at $462.6/mt Feb. 18, up 9 cents day over day. Platts assessed SOYBEX FOB Santos at $422.57/mt Feb. 13, down $5.24/mt day over day.