US raises beef import forecast on strong demand, new Argentina quota

The US beef and veal import forecast, in-carcass-weight equivalent, for the first quarter of 2026 was at 1.55 billion pounds, up 68 million lb, or 5%, compared to the first quarter of 2025, the US Department of Agriculture said in its latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

USDA total US beef import estimates for 2026 were at 5.575 billion lb, up 181 million lb, or 3%, from 2025 estimates, and up 940 million lb, or 20%, from 2024, the USDA data showed.

"Based on continued strong demand for lean processing beef and the increased import quota for Argentina, the third- and fourth-quarter forecasts for 2026 are also raised 25 million lb each, bringing the annual total to 5.575 billion lb, which would be a year-over-year increase of 3.4%," the USDA said in the report, which was released after the market closed Feb. 17.

"On Feb. 6, a proclamation was issued to temporarily increase the US tariff-rate quota for beef imports from Argentina," according to the USDA. "Previously, the quota for Argentina was set at 20,000 metric tons/year; the new proclamation permits an additional 80,000 mt of lean beef trimmings per year to be imported tariff-free in four quarterly tranches of 20,000 mt each."

"Over the whole year, the new [Argentina] quota would account for about 4% of total imports and less than 1% of total disappearance," the USDA said. "Argentina's exports to China will be limited in 2026 by China's new safeguard import quota, potentially increasing available supplies to ship to the US."

"However, some of these increased duty-free imports to the US from Argentina are expected to displace imports from other countries that are subject to an over-quota tariff," the USDA added.

Prices

Limited US supply amid strong demand from China has supported the lean beef trimming prices, market sources said.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed 90CL beef CIF US at $8,135/mt, or $3.69/lb, Feb. 17 for a 30- to 60-day shipment, compared with $7,981/mt, or $3.58/lb, Jan. 16 and with $6,680/mt, or $3.03/lb, Feb. 17, 2025.

The 90CL beef CIF US assessment rose 2% month over month and 22% year over year.

Platts assessed 95CL beef CIF US at $8,708/mt, or $3.95/lb, Feb. 17 for a 30- to 60-day shipment, compared with $8,400/mt, or $3.81/lb, Jan. 16 and with $7,011/mt, or $3.18/lb, Feb. 17, 2025.

The 95CL beef CIF US assessment rose 4% month over month and 24% year over year.

Despite higher offer values for 95CLs, buyers did not bid at those levels. "Those prices are around 5 cents or so higher than where we'd like to be for shipments into the US," a beef processor said.

Offers for 95CLs were as high as $4.05/lb for New Zealand origin, but trade was heard at $3.95/lb.

"Lean trim prices continue to surge as supply levels remain unable to keep up with exceptional demand," Caleb Hurst, cattle and beef principal analyst for S&P Global Energy CERA, said in the latest Weekly Beef Update report. "90s [domestic] lean trimmings were nearly $8 higher this week as they finished at $426.50[/hundredweight], the highest mark since September."

"[Price] forecasts have been raised to show another $5-$10 increase over the next several weeks as demand is anticipated to remain strong," Hurst said.