USDA raises MY 2026 beef import forecast to 5.575 bil lb

The US Department of Agriculture raised its outlook for US beef imports in marketing year 2026 (January-December) to 5.575 billion lb, up 0.9% from its Jan. 12 estimate and 3.4% higher than the MY 2025 estimate, according to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Feb. 10.

"Beef imports are raised for 2026 on continued strong demand for lean processing beef and the recent agreement between the US and Argentina that increases its beef import quota," the USDA said.

"We did expect an increase in the beef import forecast for this WASDE based on the recent agreement between the US and Argentina. The biggest reason for this expectation is that WASDE is a policy in place," Aaron Ates, associate director for protein analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA, said. "It appears they are assuming that this agreement will be additive to imports, instead of substitutionary, and not representative of demand given current and expected supplies."

The USDA pegged US beef imports for MY 2025 at 5.394 billion lb, up 0.5% from its Jan. 12 estimate and 16.4% higher than MY 2024.

The USDA maintained its beef export estimate for MY 2026 at 2.425 billion lb, down 5.6% from MY 2025. For MY 2025, the USDA pegged US beef exports at 2.568 billion lb, according to the report.

For MY 2026, the USDA estimates US beef production at 25.987 billion lb, compared with 25.802 billion lb pegged in January. US beef output is seen 0.3% lower year over year.

"Beef production is raised on higher slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter and slightly heavier dressed weights," the report said.

US beef import prices

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, last assessed 90CL beef CIF US at $8,157/metric ton, or $3.70/lb, on Feb. 9 for a 30-to-60-day shipment period, up from $7,826/mt, or $3.55/lb, on Jan. 12, the date of the previous WASDE report.

Platts last assessed 95CL beef CIF US at $8,576/mt, or $3.89/lb, on Feb. 9 for a 30-to-60-day shipment period, up from $8,311/mt, or $3.77/lb, on Jan. 12.

Platts last assessed 85CL beef CIF US at $7,782/mt, or $3.53/lb, on Feb. 9 for a 30-to-60-day shipment period, up from $7,363/mt, or $3.34/lb, on Jan. 12.

According to traders, limited US domestic supplies and China buying from overseas before they reach their new quotas have been supporting beef import prices.

"It's hard to find domestic lean beef trimmings," a beef trader said. "For the spot market, we are still recovering from the US winter storms, which made it difficult to move cattle and beef."

"I am increasingly thinking the US beef business is forever changed," a US beef processor said. "We need to rebuild the cattle herd, but the Cattleman is selling livestock for prices never thought possible. It is hard to convince them to invest more for even better returns down the road."

"I think ground beef may be okay in the long term using imports, but steaks and cuts are going to be price-prohibitive for large swaths of the population," the processor added.