Seafood trade to keep growing despite tariffs, bans, freight risks: economist

Global trade in fish and aquaculture products is expected to continue expanding in both volume and value despite heightened policy uncertainty, trade disruptions and rising logistics risks, a senior FAO economist said Feb. 9 at the World Seafood Congress 2026.

William Griffin, a trade economist with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's fisheries and aquaculture division, told delegates that recent shocks -- including US tariff measures, China's ban on Japanese seafood and volatility in freight markets -- have slowed growth but have not reversed long-term trade expansion.

"Overall, despite the disruptions we saw in 2025 and despite the headlines, there has not been a heavy reduction in trade volumes or values at the global scale," Griffin said. "What we're seeing is a slowdown in growth, not a contraction."

Trade volumes remain historically high

Global seafood trade now exceeds 42 million metric tons in net weight, equivalent to about 16 million mt in live weight, with an estimated value of more than $190 billion, Griffin said. Roughly a third of global fisheries and aquaculture production enters international trade, underscoring the sector's exposure to policy shifts and market disruptions.

Aquatic products account for close to half of all globally traded animal proteins, giving trade policy changes an outsized impact on the sector, Griffin said.

Inter-regional trade remains particularly strong within Europe, where products may cross borders multiple times for processing before reaching consumers. Major demand centers continue to be concentrated in the EU, the US and Japan, although trade diversification is gradually increasing from a low base.

US tariffs reshape flows but do not curb imports

Griffin said US trade policy has been a major source of uncertainty over the past year, but the impact of tariffs on seafood imports has been more muted than initially feared.

While effective tariffs on US imports have risen to about 16% from roughly 2% previously, they remain well below levels initially announced in early 2025. US seafood imports actually rose in 2025, driven partly by preloading as exporters accelerated shipments ahead of anticipated tariff increases.

"For 2025 and 2026, we don't anticipate a reduction in US imports due to increased tariffs," Griffin said, citing the size of the US market and the resilience of established supply chains.

However, impacts have varied sharply by country and product.

India shrimp hit hardest

India has been among the most affected exporters due to its heavy reliance on the US shrimp market. US tariffs on Indian shrimp rose from an initially announced 25% to 50% in August 2025, triggering a sharp drop in shipments in the final months of the year after a period of preloading.

An interim US-India trade deal announced recently is expected to cut the effective tariff to about 18%, offering potential relief and supporting a recovery in trade flows, Griffin said.

Griffin said roughly half of the shrimp volumes that would normally have been exported to the US in the last four months of 2025 were not shipped, with much of the product held in cold storage. Indian exporters redirected some volumes to China, the EU and Vietnam, but often at lower prices.

China ban disrupts Japan's seafood exports

Outside the US, Griffin highlighted China's ban on Japanese seafood imports as one of the most severe recent trade disruptions.

China had been Japan's largest export market for seafood, accounting for average monthly trade of about $53 million before the ban. That trade "simply evaporated overnight," Griffin said.

While Japan has redirected some exports to alternative markets, around half of the lost volumes have been absorbed domestically at significantly lower prices or remain unsold, he said.

Freight, climate rules add risks

Logistics remain a key vulnerability for global seafood trade, Griffin said, pointing to the sharp rise in freight rates since 2020 and recent disruptions linked to container imbalances, the Panama Canal and the Red Sea.

A future 20% shortfall in freight availability could double shipping costs, pressuring exporters' margins, he said.

Looking ahead, Griffin said upcoming International Maritime Organization rules to cut shipping emissions -- targeting a 40% reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050 -- could further reshape trade patterns. Compliance will require new fuels and technologies that are still under development, potentially affecting shipping costs, routes and market access.