2030 aviation emissions target achievable amid growth in traffic: ICAO

The International Civil Aviation Organization stated that its goals for reducing aviation emissions by 2030 remain achievable, despite rapid growth in global air traffic, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts on cleaner fuels, operational improvements, and system upgrades.

Speaking at the Changi Aviation Summit in Singapore on Feb. 2, ICAO Council President Toshiyuki Onuma said the organization's goal of reducing aviation greenhouse gas emissions by 5% by 2030 can still be achieved, provided governments and industry work together within existing frameworks, including the ICAO Long-Term Strategic Plan and the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation.

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Global passenger numbers exceeded 4.6 billion in 2024 and are expected to nearly triple by 2050, while air cargo volumes are forecast to more than double over the same period, Onuma said, highlighting the scale of infrastructure and decarbonization challenges facing the sector.

"A system built for four billion passengers cannot serve three times that number," Onuma said, adding that growth presents an opportunity to redesign aviation systems to meet safety, capacity and sustainability goals simultaneously.

ICAO has prioritized sustainable aviation fuel and other CORSIA-eligible fuels as key to achieving near- and long-term emissions reductions, alongside operational improvements and new technologies, as part of its plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

Onuma stressed that coordinated global action remains critical, particularly as aviation growth increasingly shifts toward emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region, which ICAO expects to lead global traffic expansion over the coming decades.

The comments came as Singapore and ICAO signed an agreement to expand leadership and management training for aviation authorities, reflecting a broader focus on capacity-building and institutional cooperation as the sector enters a new growth phase.

Singapore Acting Transport Minister Jeffrey Siow also called for stronger international cooperation, warning that fragmented efforts could weaken shared aviation goals. He said global aviation's progress has always relied on common rules, standards, and collaboration—an approach that remains vital for managing growth and decarbonization pressures.

ICAO forecasts global air traffic to nearly triple by 2050, with Asia-Pacific accounting for a significant share of incremental demand, reinforcing the urgency of scaling sustainable fuels, modernizing air navigation systems and aligning policy frameworks to meet climate targets.

IATA previously warned that SAF supply growth is expected to slow significantly in 2026, with production forecast to reach only 2.4 million mt, or 0.8% of global jet fuel demand, as high costs and policy design issues hinder investment.

Despite cost pressures, IATA projects global airline net profits of $41 billion in 2026, maintaining a 3.9% net margin, though SAF purchases are expected to add an estimated $4.5 billion to airline fuel bills next year based on anticipated availability.

The US sustainable aviation fuel market strengthened over the month to Jan. 28, supported by record domestic SAF generation, firmer SAF premiums, and improving market sentiment amid expectations of regulatory clarity on renewable fuel policy.

SAF generation rose to 44.29 MMgal in December, setting a new record, according to data from the US Environmental Protection Agency. All SAF produced was domestically generated, emphasizing ongoing reliance on US-based production amid uncertainty over import policies and feedstock treatment.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed SAF in California from Dec. 31 to Jan. 28 at 7.04 cents/gal, up 26.4%. SAF in Illinois rose 25.69% over the same period to 8.2936 cents/gal.

Jet kerosene prices also moved higher. The Los Angeles pipeline gained 1.54 cents to 2.49 cents/gal, while the Chicago pipeline increased by 26.29 cents to 219.19 cents/gal.

Imports of sustainable aviation fuel resumed in January, marking the first arrivals since October 2025.

On Jan. 14, 124,960 barrels of SAF produced HEFA-SPK were unloaded at Los Angeles, California, and 24,941 barrels arrived on Jan. 20, in San Francisco, California, according to US Customs data. Both shipments were carried from Singapore for Neste US Inc.