INFOGRAPHIC: Upstream GHG emissions in the US Gulf of Mexico

By Marianne Lagman, Susana Santos, Christopher Kennett, Isaac Nuti

Recent deepwater developments show how project design and operational improvements can lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions well below the regional average. Shell’s Vito and Whale assets, built under a “design one, build two” approach, are estimated to achieve production lifecycle GHG intensities of 4.4 kgCO₂e/boe and 4.6 kgCO₂e/boe, respectively, while Chevron’s all-electric Anchor facility stands out at 2.0 kgCO₂e/boe. Major producing hubs such as Jack/St. Malo, Mad Dog, and Mars are also estimated to outperform the 2024 deepwater average, with production lifecycle intensities ranging from 5.9 to 7.3 kgCO₂e/boe, supported by lower fuel gas and venting contributions compared to the regional average.

The US Gulf of Mexico (US GOM) is increasingly defined by deepwater production, with deepwater assets accounting for 93% of total output in 2024, while shelf volumes fell to 7% and are projected to decline further to 3% by 2030. In 2024, deepwater production totaled 1,920 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), with an average emissions intensity of 7.4 kilograms of CO₂ equivalent per barrel of oil equivalent (kgCO₂e/boe). Shelf production, while much smaller at 155 thousand boe/d, remained significantly more emission-intensive at 61.6 kgCO₂e/boe, raising the total US GOM average to 11.5 kgCO₂e/boe.

Infrastructure-led exploration (ILX) and subsea tiebacks are extending the life and improving the efficiency of mature infrastructure. The Winterfell tieback to Heidelberg demonstrates this effect. As Winterfell ramps up through existing facilities, Heidelberg’s emissions intensity falls sharply, with estimates dropping below 9.9 kgCO₂e/boe in 2025, when the platform reaches a new production peak. Tiebacks are likely to remain central, as most recent discoveries are around 50 million barrels or less. Ample existing infrastructure enables lower-cost, faster-cycle developments with shorter paybacks, lower emissions intensity and greater investor returns.

Looking forward, production could hold steady and potentially rise slightly over the next two to three years, but significant growth will require larger discoveries. Upside is emerging in ultra-high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) reservoirs, where early results from Anchor (Phase 1) and Shenandoah signal that projects like Kaskida could outperform expectations. These new developments will likely serve as the foundation for future ILX and additional discoveries in the less mature regions of the Gulf of Mexico. Policy momentum also supports continued development. After Lease Sale Big Beautiful Gulf 1 (BBG1) and BBG2, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has proposed BBG3 for August 2026 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, reinforcing a regular offshore leasing schedule and continued access to acreage.¹

1. From Bureau of Ocean Energy Management website, accessed Feb 26, 2026.

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