Daily Update — May 28, 2026
Three Months into Iran War
Today is Thursday, May 28, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. This edition explores the continued global effects of the war in the Middle East. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Economy
Flash PMIs signal stagflation among the major developed economies as growth falters amid price hikes
S&P Global’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys showed that business growth stalled in May as the ongoing Middle East war exerts a growing toll. Europe was the hardest hit, with the UK and eurozone economies in decline. The expansion of the US and Japanese economies has also decelerated since the war began.
Services have generally reported the worst deterioration in demand, whereas manufacturers have continued to benefit in May from stockpiling. However, this precautionary stock build will only be temporary and reflects growing concerns over supply conditions and price hikes. Manufacturing input price inflation accelerated sharply among the major advanced economies to reach a four-year high, with energy prices driving service sector inflation.
These indicators signal stagflationary conditions for major economies and pose a major challenge to central bank policymakers.
Global Trade
Hormuz reopening unlikely to quickly unwind LNG supply backlog: lawyers
Middle East LNG exporters could spend years resolving contractual disputes and restoring missed deliveries once LNG tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, with a backlog of claims potentially affecting cargo programming well into 2027, contract lawyers have told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.
"A key question remains whether base volumes are restored first, or whether deferred and make-up volumes take priority," said Max Rockall, partner at Squire Patton Boggs, in an interview with Platts. "There will be a backlog to deal with, including possible contested force majeure claims, rescheduling, restoration, and future cargo programming."
How deliveries are prioritized will depend on the wording of individual contracts, Rockall added, noting that priority would likely be given to annual volume commitments under long-term contracts. The comments come as the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz approaches three months, constraining roughly 20% of global LNG supply.
Oil & Gas
War in the Middle East: Five Upstream Implications Reshaping Global Energy Markets
The Middle East war has triggered one of the most disruptive upstream supply shocks seen in decades. Unlike previous geopolitical events that largely redirected trade flows, this conflict has constrained physical supply, disrupted logistics through the Strait of Hormuz and forced widespread production shut‑ins. These dynamics — and their implications for costs, portfolios and M&A — were examined in S&P Global Energy CERA’s May 12 webinar, Upstream Implications: War in the Middle East.
Explore the five data‑driven upstream takeaways from the discussion in this article.
In case you missed it
- Overcapacity across Asia and disruptions in feedstock naphtha supply due to the Middle East war have driven a strategic transformation in Japan’s petrochemical industry and affected production.
- East Africa imports about 80% of its gasoil and jet fuel from Gulf states, making it one of the most affected regions in the first months of the Middle East war.
- US ethylene exports remain elevated due to a significant uptick in European demand since the US-Israel war with Iran began, according to the latest S&P Global Commodities at Sea data.
Upcoming events
- The Global Energy Outlook: Opportunities for Nigeria as a Reliable and Secure Energy Supplier | June 3 (Webinar)
- Unlocked Insights: The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Global Energy Resilience | June 4 (Webinar)
- Assessing recession risks: decoding the purchasing and supply signals | June 11 (Webinar)