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Daily Update — March 4, 2026

Carbon Bill for EU Importers; GenAI Digest; and Thailand Pauses Oil Exports

Today is Wednesday, March 4, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.

Energy Transition & Sustainability

Check please: European importers await CBAM bill as transitional phase ends

 

Europe began the definitive phase of its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in January after two years of emissions data collection. This phase requires importers to begin paying for the carbon embedded into iron and steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen when they are produced outside the reach of the EU's Emissions Trading System.

 

S&P Global Energy Principal Analyst Max Mucenic joined “EnergyCents” podcast hosts Hill Vaden and Sam Humphreys to discuss the financial liabilities accruing under this new phase of the carbon tariff and the potential impacts to the EU economy and its trade partners as payments come due.

Artificial Intelligence

Generative AI Digest: A fast start to 2026

 

Generative AI started 2026 with a bang. January was one of the most active recent periods in AI funding and M&A, with capital continuing to consolidate around frontier‑model players and emerging infrastructure startups. A growing number of acquisitions signaled accelerating competition across the ecosystem. At the same time, Anthropic launched Claude Cowork and Claude Code, collaborative AI workflows that quickly generated significant industry buzz for their usability and developer-focused design.

 

There is a common perception that GenAI applications can learn on the job by continually updating based on ongoing activity to improve performance on specific tasks. In practice, most deployed GenAI systems do not update model weights during inference. What is often described as learning is better understood as conditioning on the prompt, including any retrieved material, rather than updates to the underlying model. This is not to say that agents cannot improve. Feedback signals can be used to optimize the surrounding application layer — for example, by refining instructions, selecting a more appropriate model or improving retrieval and tool-use pipelines. 

Global Trade

Thailand suspends oil exports, tightens monitoring amid Middle East conflict

 

Thai Energy Minister Auttapol Rerkpiboon ordered the immediate suspension of crude and petroleum product exports to protect the country's oil reserves amid war in the Middle East, according to a March 1 statement from the ministry. The move comes as oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was halted due to the ongoing conflict.

 

Auttapol also ordered the start of the Energy Emergency Situation Monitoring Center to monitor the situation. He directed all agencies to assess market impacts, reserve levels and price dynamics, and to prepare short- and long-term contingency plans, including using government funds to mitigate the impact of energy price spikes on living costs. As of March 1, Thailand held 4.88 billion liters of crude and refined oil reserves in domestic storage, equivalent to about 38 days of domestic consumption, the ministry said.

In case you missed it

  • Shares in US insurers were largely unaffected by the market volatility that followed the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn President Donald Trump's country-specific tariffs.
  • Geopolitical developments in the Middle East are expected to boost Asian aluminum prices amid a tight supply-demand balance and could push Japanese aluminum premiums even higher, market sources said March 2.
  • US wheat futures surged to multimonth highs on Feb. 27 as escalating geopolitical tensions triggered widespread fund short covering and added volatility to a market that had been sidelined amid ample global supply.