Daily Update — June 4, 2025
Recession Risks; AI Infrastructure; and Exploring Sector-Specific Tariffs
Today is Wednesday, June 4, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Economy
Recession Risks
The common definition of a technical recession is consecutive quarter-over-quarter contractions in real GDP. Some countries, including the US, have more specific definitions, including criteria based around the duration, depth and breadth of output losses.
A growth recession implies that real GDP growth runs below its estimated potential rate, leading to rising unemployment. This is what S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasts for the US.
Learn more with data from the Purchasing Managers’ Index.
Artificial Intelligence
AI infrastructure divide defines generative AI success – Highlights from VotE: AI & Machine Learning
AI workload demands are continuing to expand, with generative AI driving further investment in infrastructure. As organizations shift from experimenting with GenAI capabilities to operationalizing them, new pressures are emerging on an already stretched infrastructure setup at many organizations.
S&P Global Market Intelligence 451 Research's Voice of the Enterprise: AI & Machine Learning, Infrastructure 2024 study, a survey of more than 700 mid-level and senior IT and line-of-business professionals, provides a detailed view of the strategies that organizations are using to meet this pressure. The study explores AI execution venues, tools, purchasing strategies and challenges.
Global Trade
Listen: Drilling Down Into Sector-Specific Tariffs
In this episode of “The Decisive” podcast, host Kristen Hallam explores the complex landscape of tariffs under the Trump administration, focusing on the implications of Section 232 reviews. Joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Chris Rogers and John Anton, the conversation covers the nuances of industry-specific tariffs that affect sectors including steel, aluminum, electronics and pharmaceuticals.
Tune in to gain insights into the ongoing tariff negotiations, the potential ramifications for supply chains and the strategic decisions companies must make in response to these economic shifts.
In case you missed it
- Steel associations outside the US denounced President Donald Trump's decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, warning of massive burdens, trade disruptions and import pressures.
- The Platts CIF Middle East chicken breast price fell to its lowest level since the assessment was launched in June 2024.
- The total first-quarter North American insurance underwriter deal value dropped 40% quarter over quarter, even though the number of transactions increased by two.
Upcoming events
- 2H 2025 Outlook for US Credit Unions: Growth and Asset Quality in Focus | June 5 (Webinar)
- Unlocking Opportunities: Global Metals Trends and Argentina's Mining Landscape | June 10 (Webinar)
- Simplifying ISDA Notices - Bringing a Modern Practice to a Critical Process | June 10 (Webinar)