Daily Update — August 04, 2026
Higher Oil Prices Fuel EV Momentum; Private Credit Under Pressure; and Brazil’s Diesel Challenges
Today is Tuesday, August 4, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Energy & Commodities
Global oil shock offers boost for EV switching, fossil phaseout: IEA
The global oil shock triggered by the Middle East war is accelerating electric vehicle adoption, leading to a projected plateau in global oil demand. The International Energy Agency forecasts that oil demand could peak by 2030 under its stated energy policies, with up to 5 million barrels/day of oil displaced. Higher oil prices may further accelerate EV adoption by prompting additional policy initiatives and improving the economics for drivers — mirroring the historic shifts of previous crises.
Global EV sales rose 20% annually to a record 20 million units in 2025, cutting oil demand by about 1.7 million b/d. In 2026, EVs are expected to account for 28% of total car purchases, with this share potentially rising to 50% by 2035.
Capital Markets
Listen: Private Credit Under Pressure: Liquidity, Distress, and Opportunity in Today's Credit Markets
As private credit assets expand, liquidity pressures, redemption requests and changing market conditions are reshaping the landscape for business development companies, direct lenders and secondary credit investors. On this episode of the "Masters of Risk" podcast, Lionel Jolie, partner and head of credit at J.F. Lehman & Co., joined host Stewart Webster to discuss the sectors attracting capital, the risks of liquidity mismatches and why market stress may be more nuanced than headlines suggest.
Jolie explained how his team navigates public and private markets, providing liquidity to lenders and uncovering value in stressed, illiquid and often misunderstood opportunities. Jolie also shared insights into the changing business development company market, liability management and the difficulties of refinancing in a higher-rate environment. He highlighted strategies for identifying companies facing temporary liquidity issues versus those with deeper operational challenges.
Global Trade
Listen: Diesel supply constraints impact flows to Brazil
Diesel prices have surged due to supply constraints in the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine's attacks have knocked out a significant portion of Russia's refining capacity, further tightening global diesel supplies.
What does this mean for Brazil, which relies heavily on diesel imports from Russia? How do Brazil's price subsidies affect its diesel supply? Could India step in as an alternative supplier? What policy options does the Trump administration have to address the supply challenges? In this episode of the “Oil Markets” podcast, S&P Global Energy's Aaron Tucker and Renato Rostas joined host Jeff Mower to explore these questions.
In case you missed it
- The Atlantic Basin LNG market remains under pressure from the Middle East war, with tight supply and elevated prices persisting five months after the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran.
- El Niño-driven heatwaves drove a 13.2% year-over-year increase in India's power consumption to 483 terawatt-hours during April-June, according to Central Electricity Authority data.
- Japan's propylene exports fell 38.6% year over year to 186,757 metric tons in the first half of 2026, with shipments to China dropping 45% to 78,714 mt, according to data released by the Customs and Tariff Bureau.
Upcoming events
- How Could a Strong El Niño Impact Agriculture, Fertilizer Markets, and Investment Opportunities? | August 12 (Webinar)
- Q3 ’26 Outlook for U.S. Banks: How Oil Prices Could Impact the Fed’s Next Rate Move | August 19 (Webinar)
- U.S. Public Finance Chicago Credit Forum | September 16 (Chicago)