Daily Update — April 23, 2026
Insights into the Middle East Conflict
Today is Thursday, April 23, 2026, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Global Trade
Singapore says ships' transit rights through international straits 'not negotiable'
The rights of ships transiting through international straits is "not negotiable," according to Gan Kim Yong, Singapore's deputy prime minister and minister for trade and industry. At Singapore Maritime Week 2026, Gan highlighted the importance of navigational freedoms under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Gan said the recent blockages are "not just a regional disruption" but "a systemic shock." They show how instability at a single maritime choke point can quickly cascade through energy prices, transport costs and supply chains, and how rule-based trading systems come under strain as multilateralism is challenged.
"UNCLOS has specified that ships and aircraft traveling to these straits must have the right transit passage,” Gan said. “This is something that we have to recognize and have to preserve, and that's why we need to continue to uphold rules and regulations in this regard."
Economy
April 2026 Global Economic Outlook: Conflict-related economic fallout to continue
While negotiations are underway to end the Middle East war, the conflict’s economic impacts will persist, though the outlook and duration of these disruptions remain uncertain. As the cutoff point for March’s round of energy assumptions was early in the conflict, S&P Global Market Intelligence factored in limited disruptions and price impacts. But S&P Global Market Intelligence’s April assumptions, which are consistent with S&P Global Energy’s current base case, incorporate extended disruptions and higher prices. Assumptions about other energy prices, including gas, have also been adjusted in line with S&P Global Energy’s projections.
S&P Global Market Intelligence raised its consumer price inflation forecasts to account for higher energy price assumptions, reflecting the direct effects of higher energy prices and signs of broadening price pressures. These include higher materials prices, supply chain disruptions, lengthening delivery times, and higher shipping and insurance costs. Core consumer price inflation forecasts were raised accordingly, although to a lesser extent than headline rates.
Global economic outlook: April 2026
Banking
European Banks' First Quarter Results Will Offer Clues To Middle East War Effects
European banks’ first-quarter results will provide early insights into the consequences of the Middle East war. S&P Global Ratings expects knock-on effects to include a slight rise in credit provisions and mixed impacts on fees and commissions. Banks’ forward-looking statements will highlight expectations for credit demand and net interest margins, and will likely show how asset quality develops.
European banks entered this period of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty with healthy credit metrics. Further, the European credit cycle indicator was flat, with household and corporate debt levels below long-term averages and broadly supportive equity and house prices. S&P Global Ratings’ base case assumes the war’s intensity has peaked and the Strait of Hormuz’s effective closure will gradually ease. However, commodity supply disruptions are likely to persist for months. S&P Global Ratings now expects low economic growth and above-target annual inflation in 2026, resulting in higher policy rates that should normalize somewhat in 2027.
In case you missed it
- S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index survey data showed a weakening trend in worldwide trade in March, indicating the outbreak of the Middle East war has derailed a trade recovery that began earlier in the year.
- Oil prices rose April 20 after the US seized an Iranian ship and continued its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Middle East conflict has heightened risks to Gulf energy infrastructure and global shipping lanes, increasing uncertainty for emerging and trade-linked economies such as South Africa.
Upcoming events
- Dips, ships and chips: Supply chain outlook for Q2 2026 and beyond | April 24 (Webinar)
- Building a Corporate Strategy Fit for the Age of Agility by Leveraging Economics, PMITM and Supply Chain Insights | April 30 (Webinar)
- Of Fire on Water: The Asia-Pacific Offshore Oil and Gas Supply Chain in the Wake of the Middle East War Webinar (Webinar Replay)