articles Corporate /en/research-insights/articles/women-were-the-vital-statistic-of-the-2018-midterm-election content
BY CONTINUING TO USE THIS SITE, YOU ARE AGREEING TO OUR USE OF COOKIES. REVIEW OUR
PRIVACY & COOKIE NOTICE
Log in to other products

Login to Market Intelligence Platform

 /


Looking for more?

Request a Demo

You're one step closer to unlocking our suite of comprehensive and robust tools.

Fill out the form so we can connect you to the right person.

  • First Name*
  • Last Name*
  • Business Email *
  • Phone *
  • Company Name *
  • City *

* Required

In This List

Women were the Vital Statistic of the 2018 Midterm Election

S&P Global Ratings

COP24 Special Edition Shining A Light On Climate Finance

S&P Global Platts

Energy: What to Watch in 2019

S&P Dow Jones Indices

Considering the Risk from Future Carbon Prices

S&P Global Ratings

U.S. Bank Outlook 2019 Still Sunny, But The Good Times May Be Behind Us


Women were the Vital Statistic of the 2018 Midterm Election

Like most elections, the 2018 U.S. midterms served as a modern Rorschach test–people saw whatever story served their purposes and credibly made cases of where they won, where they did not, and what it meant looking ahead for 2020.

What is not up for debate, however, is that women made their indelible imprint on this election. A record number of women are headed to Congress in January, and they got there because women showed up to vote for them. According to exit polling by ABC News, women accounted for 53 percent of voters, a record high. And they voted for Democratic House candidates by a 60 percent to 39 percent margin.

That still doesn’t answer the most important question: Why?

Why did women show up and put more women in office than ever before?

In 2017, S&P Global launched a comprehensive research project titled, “Women, Work and Wealth”, designed to explore the inclusive economic benefits of increasing women's participation in the workforce.  See our two foundational research pieces The Key to Unlocking U.S. GDP Growth? Women, and Adding More Women to the U.S. Workforce Could Send Global Stock Markets Soaring.

In a continuation of these research efforts, we teamed up with SurveyMonkey, the global survey software company, to deploy a post-election poll, setting out to find out what was on voters’ minds, specifically women voters. This national survey of nearly 7,500 adults conducted after the November elections reveals women’s animating concerns about the country, the economy, and their own financial lives. The data highlights not only the tremendous gaps between how women and men orient themselves politically, but also how differently women of various ages, racial, and ethnic backgrounds see the country and their own prospects.

These four insights caught our eye:

1. 70% of women believe there were more opportunities to excel in leadership positions over the past decade, and this majority holds across all subcategories: age, race, income, political party, etc.

Source: SurveyMonkey

2. Equal pay was selected by women voters across all subcategories as the most effective means to increasing opportunity for women.

Chart2Source: SurveyMonkey

3. Democrats earned women’s trust this time overwhelmingly when it comes to financial policies that benefit them and their families.

Source: SurveyMonkey

4. Health care is the animating issue for women, dwarfing other top issues including jobs and the economy, which is the top issue for men.

Source: SurveyMonkey

This analysis is based on a SurveyMonkey online poll conducted among adults ages 18 and older in the United States. Respondents were selected from the more than 2 million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and geography using the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States age 18 and over. This survey was conducted November 7-14, 2018 among 7,467 adults. The modeled error estimate for the full sample is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. Respondents who did not to answer questions are included into the total percent calculation but are excluded visually from the charts in this article. For those percentages, see the "No Answers" in the full crosstabs.



COP24 Special Edition Shining A Light On Climate Finance

Highlights

− Green loans are evolving, with the Climate Bond Initiative forecasting nearly $1 trillion in green bond issuance by 2020.

− Despite the uptick in green bond and loan issuance, the market still remains relatively small, especially compared to the universe of assets comprising CLO 2.0 transactions.

− In our view, a green CLO market has large growth potential, boosted by regulatory initiatives and emerging interest from both issuers and investors in 2018.

− We built a hypothetical rating scenario for a green CLO to compare and contrast the underlying portfolio and structure with a typical European CLO 2.0 transaction.

− Our hypothetical green CLO analysis showed that green loans may have different fundamental characteristics to corporate loans, such as lower asset yields, higher credit quality, and higher recovery rates assumptions.

The global collateralized loan obligation (CLO) market has experienced a rebirth (2010 in the U.S. and 2013 in Europe). New issuance continues to increase due to investor familiarity with the product, as well as low historical default rates. While a market for green assets, such as green loans and bonds has been established for a while, although still of a relative size, a sustainable securitization market is still in its infancy. Considering the challenge in financing the amounts, S&P Global Ratings expects green CLOs to play a role in increasing the private sector presence in the sustainable finance market.

Following the Paris Agreement that came into force in November 2016, 184 parties have ratified the action plan to limit global warming. For this purpose, developed nations have pledged to provide $100 billion (about €87 billion) annually until 2025. As part of this deal the EU has committed to decrease carbon emissions by 40% by 2030. In March 2018 the European Commission (EC) proposed the creation of environmental, social, and corporate governance 'taxonomy', regulating sustainable finance product disclosures, as well as introducing the 'green supporting factor' in the EU prudential rules for banks and insurance companies.

Read the Full Report
Download


Energy: What to Watch in 2019

Highlights

S&P Global Platts Analytics Issues Two Special Reports

Pricing across the global energy markets will face headwinds in 2019, with a weaker and more uncertain macroeconomic framework deflating price formation in general, according to two special reports just issued by S&P Global Platts Analytics. Such headwinds will require the industry and portfolio managers to take a big-picture approach.

See the Executive Summary of the S&P Global Platts Analytics special report 2018 Review and 2019 here. Access the full S&P Global Platts Analytics Top Factors to Look Out For in 2019 for Energy here.

"One of the key lessons learned in 2018, painfully by some, is that market sentiment can shift violently without much change in fundamentals, requiring a steady, holistic perspective," said Chris Midgley, global head of analytics, S&P Global Platts. "It is clear that this volatility will remain a feature across the energy markets in 2019, particularly as IMO 2020 nears."

Particularly blustery headwinds are in store for markets where prices finished 2018 at elevated levels, and well above costs, such as North American natural gas and global coal. However, if the supply side can adjust to the reality of slowing demand growth, energy prices can find support. For natural gas liquids (NGLs), the ongoing logistical constraints at the US Gulf Coast are likely to manifest on continued price volatility, particularly for ethane and liquid petroleum gas (LPG), over the next year despite strong global demand.

LPG, such as propane and butane and used in transportation fuel, refrigeration, heating and cooking, is rapidly facing US export capacity constraints, especially along the US Gulf Coast. For LPG feedstock propylene, there is clear potential for high volatility globally over the next 12-18 months.

Analysts at S&P Global Platts see weakening prices of Henry Hub natural gas. The slowdown in US demand growth will exceed that of supply. But if winter temperatures prove to be colder than normal, near-term prices will need to move higher to bring on enough supply to replenish depleted storage levels.

For global liquefied natural gas (LNG), it will be end-user-backed LNG demand that faces particular struggle to cope with the speed and force of new supply entering the market in 2019. Non price-responsive demand in Asia will be easily met and JKM spot physical prices (reflecting LNG as delivered into Japan, Korea and China) will sag next year.

Access the full S&P Global Platts Analytics Top Factors to Look Out For in 2019 for Energy here. Among the 22 key take-away themes:

  • NGL supply growth will strain the North American energy system
  • Saudi Arabia will need to be nimble to balance 2019 oil supply
  • US oil supply limited by pipelines
  • Oil demand slowing: trade war, industrial slump
  • 2019 LNG supply additions largest since the Qatari mega-trains
  • US gas supply growth to exceed demand growth even with LNG exports
  • Global solar growth slowing
  • Shipping disruption looming - IMO 2020
  • New Russian gas pipeline advantage over Ukraine
  • US coal demand to decline again in 2019
  • Growth in new refineries and complex capacity likely to weigh on refinery margins especially in Asia

Year 2019 will certainly be one of transition for crude and refined oil products as it will lead into 2020 when roughly three million barrels per day of high-sulfur fuel oil must be “destroyed” (including enhanced usage of HSFO in power generation) due to the International Marine Organization (IMO) mandate of eco-friendly shipping fuels in use at sea. A similar amount of middle distillate/low sulfur fuel must be created (by refinery changes and by running more crude oil. The increase in refinery capacity between now and 2020 is large, but mostly needed to cover normal demand growth. Expect prices of light sweet crudes to be bid up in 4Q19.



Considering the Risk from Future Carbon Prices

Along with the advent of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement has come a growing understanding of the structural changes required across the global economy to shift to low- (or zero-) carbon, sustainable business practices.

The increasing regulation of carbon emissions through taxes, emissions trading schemes, and fossil fuel extraction fees is expected to feature prominently in global efforts to address climate change. Carbon prices are already implemented in 40 countries and 20 cities and regions. Average carbon prices could increase more than sevenfold to USD 120 per metric ton by 2030, as regulations aim to limit the average global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, in accordance with the Paris Agreement.

S&P Dow Jones Indices launched the S&P Carbon Price Risk Adjusted Indices to embed future carbon price risk into today’s index constituents.

Read the Full Report
Download


U.S. Bank Outlook 2019 Still Sunny, But The Good Times May Be Behind Us

Highlights

- S&P Global Ratings expects U.S. banks to face continued market volatility in 2019 stemming from a slowdown in economic growth, policy uncertainty, rising rates, and monetary tightening.

- Although it is not our current base, we believe we are incrementally closer to a turn in the credit cycle in 2019. When the credit cycle does turn, bank profitability will come under pressure as imbalances brought on by years of excess liquidity and low rates will flow through banks' income statements and balance sheets.

- Key areas of concern in credit are commercial and industrial (C&I) -- particularly leveraged lending, commercial real estate (CRE), and pockets of consumer credit -- credit cards, auto, and personal loans.

- Separately, fee income could come under pressure as the economy slows and if market valuations decline. Bank revenues in areas like assets and wealth management may also decline because they are tied, in part, to market valuations. Fees for originating and selling mortgage loans could also drop.

- Nevertheless, U.S. bank balance sheets are sound, with higher capital and liquidity levels, and we believe rated banks are well prepared to withstand potentially weakening credit conditions.

- New regulation may result in lower capital and liquidity levels for some (mainly regional) banks. On the other hand, the stressed capital buffer (SCB) proposal could prompt some global systemically important banks (GSIBs) to continue to face higher capital requirements.

- Longer term, from a business standpoint, it will be important for bank management teams to remain vigilant to disruption from technologically sophisticated competitors (fintechs), as well as to the threat of cyberattacks.

- Under our base-case scenario, we expect bank ratings to remain largely stable through 2019. 83% of our operating company ratings currently have stable outlooks, 8% have positive outlooks, and 9% have negative outlooks.

Our Fundamental Forecast For U.S. Banks In 2019 Remains Slightly Positive

Current U.S. Bank Ratings Distribution

Current Bank Ratings Outlooks

Bank Profitability Trends

Loan Growth Trends

Flattening Yield Curves And Rising Deposit Costs Should Lead To Decelerating NIMs

Asset Quality Is Excellent But Likely Will Deteriorate Incrementally As Rates Rise

Aggregate Net Charge-Off Rates Remain Below Historical Levels

Investment-Grade Loans Moving To Speculative-Grade Could Pressure Banks' C&I Portfolios

Low Interest Rates Have Helped Keep Debt Service Low For Consumers, But Trends Could Be Less Benign As Rates Turn Higher

The Evolving Composition Of Consumer Debt

Postcrisis Credit Card Loan Growth Has Been Robust

Capital Levels Are Likely To Decline For Regional Banks But May Increase For Some GSIBs

All Eight U.S. GSIBs Are Above Their Required Regulatory Minimums

Bank's Funding Profiles Remain In Good Shape

Liquidity Looks Decent, But Regional Banks' Liquidity Could Decline Due To A Recent Regulatory Proposal