New Delhi — Global soybean production and trade in 2021-22 (October-September) are seen at a record high because of rising demand for the oilseed, the International Grains Council said in a report, released April 29, that is likely to support a jump in international oilseed prices.
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Global soybean prices have been rising since mid-2020 on robust demand from China, coupled with unfavorable South American weather and tight ending stocks. As a result, while the Brazilian domestic prices have doubled year on year to Real 163.43/60 kg as of April 23, US soybean May futures prices were trading at $15.0238/bushel 1607 GMT April 29, up $7 year on year.
With high prices expected to elicit a supply response, 2021-22 world soybean output is tentatively placed at a record of 383 million mt, up 6% year on year, IGC said.
Global soybean trade in 2021-22 is projected at a record 173.4 million mt, the report said. After jumping the previous year, global trade is seen increasing only marginally, albeit to a new peak.
Consumption is expected to climb further in 2021-22, while modest inventory accumulation is likely, IGC said.
According to market analysts, China is seen as the primary driving force in the surging oilseed trade.
China — the world's largest soybean importer — is projected to buy a record 103.8 million mt of beans in 2021-22, accounting for 60% of global trade, IGC said.
Brazil and the US — the world's top soybean producers — are projected to produce 139 million mt and 120.8 million mt of beans in 2021-22, respectively, the report said.
Largely tied to an upgrade for Brazil, the forecast for 2020-21 soybean production increased by 1 million mt month on month to 362 million mt, up 7% year on year, IGC said.
Brazil is forecast to produce a record 134.5 million mt in 2021-21, the data showed.