INTERVIEW: 2027 to see first copper, cobalt and nickel ‘mined’ from ocean: ADL

2027 could see the first deep-sea mineral mining, as the US is expected to issue a permit as early as the first quarter, and potentially push the International Seabed Authority to adopt its Seabed Mining Code to prevent member states from seeking pathways in the US, according to Ilya Epikhin, head of global natural resources at consultancy firm Arthur D. Little.

In light of declining copper grades, cobalt's heavy geographic concentration and the lack of new resources, "the world is increasingly looking at what's there on the seabed," Epikhin told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.

"There is indeed a bunch of resources. We know three types of them. Seafloor massive sulfides are rich in copper, gold, zinc and silver, but harvesting them has certain difficulties, given their location at tectonic plate boundaries, near hydrothermal vents. Then cobalt crusts -- on the flanks of seamounts -- are also quite challenging for extraction," he added.

Polymetallic nodules -- containing 28%-30% of manganese, 1% of copper, 1% of nickel, 0.2%-0.7% of cobalt – are the most abundant and best-studied. Also, lying on the seafloor, they just require collection, not even cutting or digging, like in the case of the other two.

The nodules are found at depths of 4,000 to 6,000 meters, in concentrations ranging from 5 to 15 kg/square meter, with the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the North Pacific Ocean being the most nodule-rich area globally, according to Epikhin.

"We are talking about a 4-million-square-kilometer area in the northern Pacific beyond the jurisdiction of any country, with the closest states being the US (Hawaii), and Mexico. It is estimated to hold up to 30 billion tons of nodules," said Epikhin, adding that the Clarion-Clipperton Zone has been looked at since the 1960s, but metal prices and sufficient supply did not incentivize development at that time.

There are less-studied nodule-bearing areas in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. Shallow-sea nodules are present in the Baltic, but their resources are not abundant. Waters beyond national jurisdiction and exclusive economic zones are managed by the UN and the ISA, which issues licenses to companies wishing to do exploration, provided they have state-endorsed sponsorship.

Major roadblock

Despite some countries and companies working in that space since the 1980s-1990s, their activities remain limited to exploration because the ISA has not yet adopted the Mining Code, which has been in the works since 2014, according to Epikhin.

"It's a multi-hundred-page draft full of red lines of comments from parties trying to incorporate their modifications. There are about 170 member states in the ISA, plus the EU, and they are locked in a debate over oversight mechanisms, royalties, etc.," he said.

The US, meanwhile, is not an ISA member, and its Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act allows it to license companies to exploit seabed mineral resources, including in international waters.

In April 2025, Canadian company TMC said that it had submitted several applications to the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including for a commercial recovery permit covering 25,160 square kilometers in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone. In May 2026, TMC said that NOAA had deemed its applications in full compliance, with a final decision expected by the end of March 2027.

Who will govern deep-sea mining?

If the US moves to unilaterally legitimize seabed mining, it will spark a dispute with the ISA, on the one hand, but, on the other, could push the ISA to finalize the Mining Code to prevent its members from going through a different door, and given the consensus forecast that by 2035 there will not be enough copper to meet demand, Epikhin said.

Nodule collection will be unmanned and could be deployed at speed: there's no overburden to remove, no forest to cut, no drilling to do, according to the senior principal at the Brussels-based company.

However, nodule collection can still disturb and damage some ecosystems, particularly sediment.

"If you collect nodules in a bulk method, which is the mainstream solution, with a 10-ton box-looking machine that goes about, hoovering nodules with sediment, pumping them through a system of pipes before they get filtered, you need to dump the sediment back. At what depth is it okay to dump it, given its changed temperature upon replacement, underwater currents, etc.?" said Epikhin.

"You won't have that problem if you deploy robots, as they hover just above the seafloor, and use automated vision and arms to pick only nodules, but that collection is costly: you need quite a few robots, and they go up and down, running on batteries that will need recharging after each dive," he added.

Epikhin also noted that seabed metals will have a low CO2 footprint, yet they are on certain brands' and financial institutions' blacklists. In March 2021, BMW, in a joint statement with WWF Germany, said it will not use deep-ocean minerals or finance their mining until its environmental risks and consequences are clearly assessed.

Epikhin still believes the recovery of deep-sea minerals will begin to take shape next year.

"You will not have industrial volumes initially, but it won't take three years to launch processing; the first plants -- built/repurposed for nodules -- in places such as South Korea, Japan, will come online sooner," he said.