INSIGHT CONVERSATION: Willem van der Pijl, Global Shrimp Forum

In this Insight Conversation series on global protein markets, leaders from the shrimp, pork and beef sectors examine the forces reshaping international trade. This is the second of five in-depth interviews where industry executives share their insights on how tariffs, import quotas, regional conflicts and cost inflation are redirecting protein trade flows and challenging established market dynamics.

India's frozen shrimp exports rose 8% on year to a record 719,985 mt in 2025 despite a 50% US tariff introduced in August. Shipments to the US fell 13% over the year, while exports to China, Vietnam and the EU increased. India's shrimp exporters are likely to see a gradual recovery in shipments to the US in the second half of 2026 following trade flow disruptions due to tariffs announced in last year, according to Willem van der Pijl, co-founder and managing director of the Global Shrimp Forum.

Van der Pijl, a global shrimp market analyst who closely tracks shrimp production, trade and pricing across major markets, said the tariffs accelerated longer-term shifts in product mix, market diversification and competition.

In an interview with S&P Global Energy Platts Editor Sayona John, van der Pijl said the tariffs had an uneven impact on Indian companies and reinforced structural trends that will continue to shape global shrimp trade.

How have the US tariffs reshaped India's export flows and market diversification?

The first half of 2025 was relatively strong for India, including shipments to the US. Exports to the US only started to decline from July, with a sharper drop from August, when the tariffs took effect, and that decline continued into early 2026.

Lower US shipments were largely offset by increased exports to Vietnam, China and the EU. However, the key nuance is that the product mix changed significantly. Exports to the US are typically peeled and cooked -- higher value-added shrimp -- while shipments to Vietnam and China were mainly headless shell-on, or HLSO, blocks for reprocessing. That shift had direct implications for processing operations, labor utilization and overall profitability.

While the overall export picture was less negative than many initially feared, it was not positive. Many Indian companies suffered, especially those that were heavily dependent on the US market. More diversified companies were better positioned, and some were quite successful in diversifying quickly. The impact varied significantly by company.

Tariffs clearly accelerated trends that were already underway. Ecuador had already been steadily gaining market share in the US before tariffs, particularly in the HLSO category, with slower progress in peeled, cooked and other value-added categories. As tariffs took effect, expansion into peeled products accelerated significantly, marking a shift into segments where India had traditionally been dominant.

Looking ahead, Ecuador's growth in peeled exports is expected to continue, but at a slower pace, while India's shipments to the US are likely to recover gradually, with year-over-year declines moderating. This improvement should become more visible toward the end of the year, given the strong performance in the first half of last year.

Many US buyers who shifted volumes to Ecuador during the tariff period are now looking to partially switch back to India. However, Ecuador's investment in the US market is likely to continue. In addition, Ecuador ships raw materials to Asia, including Vietnam and Sri Lanka, for reprocessing and re-export to the US. Bill of lading data shows that these indirect flows account for significant volumes, meaning Ecuador's real presence in the US market is larger than direct exports suggest.

India redirected shipments to markets like the EU, China and Vietnam. Do you see this as a temporary adjustment or a structural shift?

This depends on the company. Exports to China and Vietnam follow a different business model, focused primarily on HLSO for reprocessing, and are less likely to become a long-term strategic focus for most Indian processors.

The EU is different. It is a value-added market with a product profile closer to the US, although specifications differ, for example, in glazing and treatment requirements. India has real potential to expand there, including in cooked shrimp, where it can compete with suppliers such as Vietnam.

Some Indian exporters are likely to retain the market share they gained in Europe while also rebuilding US volumes. Given the long-standing relationships Indian exporters have built with US buyers, a partial recovery appears likely. Overall, this is more diversification than substitution.

There is increasing optimism around free trade agreements, particularly with the EU. How quickly can those translate into market gains?

FTAs will help, but they are not immediate game changers. Implementation, particularly for the EU agreement, could take one to two years, and it remains unclear whether tariffs will be eliminated immediately or phased out over time. Raw products are more likely to benefit sooner than cooked and other value-added products. More importantly, access to EU retail markets depends on meeting broader compliance requirements, particularly certification standards such as ASC [Aquaculture Stewardship Council] and GlobalG.A.P. [Global Good Agricultural Practice].

India is relatively well-positioned but will need to expand the number of certified farms to access these markets. Animal welfare is also rising on the agenda of European retailers, including non-ablation in hatcheries and electrical stunning at harvest, which are becoming key market access requirements.

Even with an FTA in place, exporters will need to invest before they can fully benefit. That said, it will take time, but it will strengthen India's competitive position, not just against Ecuador but also against other Asian suppliers.

Looking ahead, what are the key supply, crop cycle and export trends to watch in India's shrimp market?

The crop in Andhra Pradesh was slightly delayed due to late stocking, while disease issues and farmer concerns over the war in the Middle East have led to early harvesting and crop losses. As a result, raw material availability remains tight, with rising farmgate prices pointing to shortages, particularly for larger sizes required in the US market.

However, relatively strong farmgate prices have encouraged restocking and are likely to support a prolonged harvest period through May to August. In addition, stronger stocking in Odisha and, to some extent, West Bengal is expected to offset delayed stocking in Andhra Pradesh, improving raw material availability from May and supporting export volumes over the summer.

Another dynamic is that monodon (black tiger shrimp) output, initially expected to more than double from last year to around 150,000 metric tons, is now likely to be closer to 100,000 mt amid lower US tariffs and an improved outlook for vannamei (white leg shrimp) in the US and EU.

Overall, the outlook remains mixed, with a slightly delayed crop but higher volumes expected in the coming months.