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Daily Update — September 26, 2025

Climate Week NYC; US Economic Outlook; and China Probes US Chip Exports

Today is Friday, September 26, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.

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Energy Transition & Sustainability

Listen: Kicking off Climate Week NYC in a fragmented global landscape | All Things Sustainable

 

Climate Week NYC 2025 continues, and S&P Global Sustainable1 has launched its special podcast coverage with guest Peter Bakker, CEO of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development.

 

The organization is a global network of more than 250 companies focused on integrating climate, nature and equity action into corporate strategies, operating plans and decision-making. It is celebrating its 30th anniversary at this year’s Climate Week NYC, at a time when many US companies are reevaluating their approach to sustainability. Bakker highlighted that discussions at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil will be key in testing if multilateralism can advance global climate solutions, or if the world will take an increasingly fragmented approach.

Economy

Economic Outlook US Q4 2025: Below-Trend Growth Persists Amid A Swirl Of Policy Shifts

 

US GDP looks set to grow 1.9% year over year in 2025, almost a full percentage point below 2024’s 2.8% growth. Real disposable income growth is slowing, consumers are still pessimistic amid worries about job security and inflation, and US businesses remain in flux as trade policy continues changing. While US economic growth averaged 2.8% over the last eight years, excluding the period of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is shaping up to be below trend in the years ahead.

 

S&P Global Ratings’ economics group expects the US’ fourth-quarter real GDP to grow 1.5% quarter over quarter, down from 2.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and a forecast of 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2026. Factors affecting consumers — such as headwinds from resurgent student loan burdens, tighter immigration policy and a frozen housing market — support this cautious economic outlook through the first half of 2026.

Global Trade

Picture This: Mainland China Launches Review of US Semiconductor Exports

 

China initiated an antidumping investigation into US analog chips, with Chinese imports of such chips surging 324.9% year over year to a record high in July. Related actions by the Chinese government include a three-month antidiscrimination review of US technology trade actions, a ruling against NVIDIA's acquisition of Mellanox and discouragement of the domestic use of NVIDIA's AI systems.​

 

The outcome of the antidumping investigation could take up to 12 months, with potential earlier actions affecting US exports.​ US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in October, potentially paving the way for a provisional agreement on tariffs and commercial relations.​

In case you missed it

  • With two California refineries set to close in the coming months, major Asian oil product suppliers, including South Korean refiners and trading houses operating in Singapore, are keen to explore gasoline and jet fuel export opportunities to the US West Coast.
  • Consumer lending in the United Arab Emirates is expanding rapidly. This reflects strong economic activity, robust employment creation and rising population inflows — trends that are expected to persist over the next couple of years.
  • Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed operational suspensions of up to 60 days on 190 mining companies, including 90 coal producers, for failing to meet environmental obligations.

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The next edition of the Daily Update will be published Tuesday, September 30.

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