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Daily Update — October 30, 2025

Climate Disclosure Lawsuit; AI and Banking; and Frontier Market Highlights

Today is Thursday, October 30, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.

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Energy Transition & Sustainability

ExxonMobil sues California over climate disclosure laws

 

ExxonMobil is suing California over the state's climate risk and greenhouse gas disclosure laws, saying they are burdensome and impede free speech. Enacted in 2023, they became the US’ first mandates requiring companies to disclose their entire carbon footprint — including third-party supply chain emissions — along with climate change-related business risks. The California legislature estimated the laws would cover thousands of companies in the world's fifth-largest economy.

 

"The statutes compel ExxonMobil to trumpet California's preferred message even though ExxonMobil believes the speech is misleading and misguided," the oil company told the US District Court for the Eastern District of California in an Oct. 24 complaint, citing case law. "But the Constitution does not permit a state to use speech mandates to turn private parties into 'instrument[s] for fostering public adherence to an ideological point of view [they] fin[d] unacceptable.'"

Artificial Intelligence

AI and banking: Leaders will soon pull away from the pack

 

The banking sector's AI journey is well underway. Financial institutions, led by data-rich, process-oriented and deep-pocketed retail and investment banks, were enthusiastic pioneers of machine learning and deep learning and more recently generative AI, particularly following the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022. The voyage has since continued apace, notably with the adoption of AI agents. As with many pioneering efforts, unexpected challenges and new risks are emerging.

 

The next three to five years promise to be a determinative leg of that journey, during which AI will increasingly alter financial institutions' operations and environments. Banks that secure the benefits of AI — including across costs and revenues — could develop enduring advantages over competitors. S&P Global Ratings expects this will ultimately affect the assessment of credit quality for the leaders and laggards in that race.

Economy

Frontier Markets Quarterly Highlights: Tariffs Meet Disinflation Amid Supportive Financing Conditions

 

Frontier markets face dual headwinds: rising US tariffs and a projected decline in aid flows in 2025. While most frontier markets have limited direct tariff exposure, exporters such as Cambodia and Nicaragua, with US exports greater than 20% of GDP, and aid-dependent sub-Saharan African countries are especially vulnerable. Soft oil prices and falling international food prices are helping disinflation, especially in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, where cereals and sugar account for a large part of total food imports. The ongoing rally in gold and several precious and industrial metals prices continues to support some metals exporters, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa.

 

Financing conditions remain supportive, although policy rates have mostly been on hold. Frontier market sovereign index yields fell to 10.4% and associated spreads narrowed to multiyear lows, indicating credit-risk compression. Looking closer at 10-year benchmark rates over the last year highlights the strongest reduction in Ghana and Zambia; Ecuador and Bolivia's return continues to outperform the emerging markets benchmark.

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