Daily Update — October 23, 2025
China’s Energy Transition; Potential for an AI Bubble; and ASEAN Transshipment Implications
Today is Thursday, October 23, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.
Energy Transition & Sustainability
Sustainability Insights: China's Energy Transition: New Forces Are Shifting Power Demand
China's power demand is entering a new phase. S&P Global Ratings expects the emerging sectors of data centers, electric vehicles and advanced manufacturing to sustain electricity demand growth of 4%–5% annually through 2030. These sectors are gaining ground over the traditional drivers of heavy industry, property-related sectors and export manufacturing.
Over China's 15th five-year plan (2026–2030), cumulative power consumption growth could reach 2,500 TWh, roughly equivalent to the annual power use of the EU. This shift reflects broader economic rebalancing. Beijing is tightening controls on carbon emissions and phasing out outdated capacity in legacy sectors such as steel and chemicals, prioritizing upgrades and clean growth. Although overall power demand will slow from the current 14th five-year plan, it will more closely align with GDP expansion, which is expected to be less energy-intensive but resilient.
Artificial Intelligence
Listen: Is There An AI Bubble? | Next in Tech
The enthusiasm for AI has been impressive, but is all of it warranted? Melissa Otto, head of S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Visible Alpha research team, joined “Next in Tech” podcast host Eric Hanselman to discuss concerns about an AI bubble. Defining the indications of a bubble might be the trickiest aspect. Is it outsize levels of debt? Unrealistic valuations? Both debt and valuations are high, but are they unreasonably so?
Much depends on seeing what AI capabilities can deliver, and we’re still in the early days of understanding what the returns on investment are. Challenges remain in getting the domain approaches right. Doing real analytical work is more challenging, and there is still more work to do in integrating AI with business processes. It’s not just the technical aspects that are in play, either. It’s possible that macroeconomic restraints are holding back even more enthusiastic spending that could create a bubble.
Global Trade
Transshipment: Outlook and implications for ASEAN
The US has ramped up its examination of transshipment trade, focusing on Chinese goods that are being redirected through Southeast Asia. This scrutiny is likely to result in stricter rules of origin, which define the local content required for goods to benefit from lower tariffs.
Economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, particularly those with low domestic value content, such as Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, may find themselves at a disadvantage. If the US enforces higher tariffs on these transshipped goods, transshipment trade could face significant disruptions across regional supply chains, leading to economic challenges for these nations.
In case you missed it
- The UK Critical Minerals Association warned that the country's critical minerals sector faces mounting pressure to retain investment after rare earths developer Pensana reportedly abandoned plans for a British refinery in favor of a US-based facility.
- Aliko Dangote, the Nigerian business mogul who launched Africa's largest oil refinery, is seeking to double the size of the site with Middle Eastern funding, putting it on track to become the largest in the world.
- German cement producer Heidelberg Materials began delivering what it calls the world's first near-zero carbon captured cement to European customers.
Upcoming events
- Tariffs on Trade: How it’s impacting economies and sectors | October 29 (Webinar)
- Q3 GenAI Funding: Record volumes continue as Agentic AI takes center stage | October 29 (Webinar)
- CERAWeek 2026 | March 23–27, 2026 (Houston)