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Daily Update — November 24, 2025

California’s Solar Output; Evolving World of Data Centers; and November Economic Outlook

Today is Monday, November 24, 2025, and here’s your curated selection of Essential Intelligence on global markets from S&P Global. Subscribe to be notified of each new Daily Update.

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Energy Transition & Sustainability

Rapid solar build continues to cloud sunny economics in California

 

California continues to dominate US solar output, accounting for 22.1% of national solar generation in 2024. While solar is projected to grow in every US state through 2035, California's build-out remains among the most aggressive. According to the S&P Global Energy Market Indicative Forecast for the third quarter of 2025, about 219.8 GW of renewables are expected to be built in California by 2035, with solar comprising 75.5%. This indicates the state’s continued leadership in clean energy, but the rapid build-out is leading to challenges such as increasingly curtailed volumes, declining capacity value and compressed margins.

 

California is now second to Texas in installed solar, with 23.8 GW operating as of October 2025 and an additional 20.6 GW of grid-scale projects in the pipeline — capacity that would nearly double the current fleet. The Golden State remains a central driver of photovoltaic development as it transitions toward 100% carbon-free generation. Statewide clean energy targets require utilities to source 60% renewable energy by 2030 and achieve 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045. Meeting these targets implies substantial building works: The Market Indicative Forecast projects 165.8 GW of solar in California by 2035, lifting solar's share of statewide generation to 60.7% in 2035 from 22.6% in 2024.

Artificial Intelligence

Listen: Powering the Future: Data Centers at the Crossroads of AI and Sustainability | Look Forward

 

In this episode of the “Look Forward” podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence 451 Research experts Kelly Morgan and Brian Partridge joined host Molly Mintz to discuss the unprecedented demand for data center capacity, fueled by the growth of generative AI, and its implications for the US economy.

 

This episode delved into the challenges data centers face as the backbone of the digital economy, including energy consumption, sustainability goals and pressures on the power grid. The experts shared insights on the investment boom in digital infrastructure, the potential risks associated with capital intensity and the innovative solutions being explored to meet the growing energy demands.

Economy

Global Economic Outlook: November 2025

 

The conclusion of the longest US government shutdown has not alleviated economic uncertainty, with a lack of data leaving financial markets in a precarious position. The likelihood of the US Federal Reserve making a 25-basis-point rate cut in mid-December now stands at about 50%, a significant drop from nearly 100% prior to the late-October rate cut. Current forecasts indicate that a return to the Fed's estimated neutral funds rate of 3.00%-3.25% is not anticipated until late 2026, reflecting a cautious economic outlook.

 

Despite these uncertainties, S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Indexes suggest that US economic conditions remain robust, with the country leading major developed economies in output growth. However, trade concerns and geopolitical factors continue to dampen business expectations. Meanwhile, global GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted upward, particularly for mainland China, while projections for Brazil, Russia and the UK have been downgraded due to various economic pressures. 

In case you missed it

  • The world’s leading farm-machinery makers are facing a prolonged slowdown as weakening farmer sentiment, falling crop prices, trade uncertainty and higher borrowing costs weigh on demand for agricultural equipment.
  • Companies of the S&P Latin America LargeMidCap index have done well in 2025, with Peruvian equities demonstrating especially strong performances despite higher volatility.
  • Aluminum producers are analyzing the preliminary benchmarks of the European Commission's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which will determine how their exports to the EU are charged.

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